Bitcoin (BTC) briefly rose above $27,000 on Saturday night, but was already rejected around $27,200 and so the peaks are getting slightly lower. Bitcoin then fell all the way to $26,500, but has since recovered slightly and, at the time of writing, stands at $26,870 on Binance and $24,870 on Bitvavo. This puts the bitcoin price down 0.6% today. The total market capitalization is $521 billion and the dominance is 46.4%. The Fear & Greed Index comes out at 49 (Neutral).
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 49 – Neutral
Current price: $26,752 pic.twitter.com/CNnpAg8yNv— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) May 22, 2023
Macro data this week
Last week was somewhat quiet in terms of macroeconomic data, but this week we have another full week ahead of us with data such as the PCE, unemployment claims and FOMC minutes. From now on you can find a more extensive weekly overview of this macro data here.
Fed minutes and speakers, PMI Flash data, GDP, PCE, Consumer Sentiment, and jobless claims.
We’ve got something for everyone in this week’s jam-packed economic calendar! pic.twitter.com/wVWMuV1naL
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 21, 2023
US debt ceiling
Discussions about the US debt ceiling are also gripping the markets. Later today, President Joe Biden and Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy will meet to discuss the debt ceiling.
Markets edgy as US debt ceiling talks near crunch time https://t.co/g8iS3cQcRs pic.twitter.com/ZSUCBys219
— Reuters (@Reuters) May 22, 2023
Recession worries and bear market
In addition, there is still a lot of uncertainty about an upcoming recession and whether this will be accompanied by a ‘soft’ or ‘hard landing.’ A few months ago, the market started talking about a new bull market phase, but more and more people now seem convinced that it is rather a recovery phase of the bear market.
It looks like Bitcoin is going for the usual bear market recovery phase.
With a recession in the middle this might be a bumpy road though. pic.twitter.com/H0gkJOnVLt
— ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) May 21, 2023
Volatility and liquidity
Bitcoin has been stuck around that $27,000 since mid-March, but is slowly starting to move slightly lower. Analytics company Glassnode reports that bitcoin is now consolidating in its tightest range in the past three years. That means volatility may be just around the corner.
The 7-day price range (3.4%) #Bitcoin has consolidated within is one of the tightest over the last 3yrs.
It is comparable to Jan 2023, and July 2020, both of which preceded large market moves.
This suggests high volatility is likely on the horizon.
📊 https://t.co/VHIhAlOSWL pic.twitter.com/JZjvZe3yJa
— glassnode (@glassnode) May 22, 2023
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s liquidity is on the rise, which may be good news for bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency has a high correlation to this liquidity index. However, that may take some time before this liquidity finds its way into bitcoin and follows its course.
The most important macro chart in the world from @RaoulGMI.
Filter out all the noise.
This is happening.
Liquidity to increase as suggested with a high degree of probability by this chart and the strong correlation which it implies.
+++#NASDAQ, #Bitcoin #ETH #dae pic.twitter.com/G3fNDJH3Jw
— Dan Tapiero (@DTAPCAP) May 21, 2023
Bullish: Investors are holding tight to their BTC
Nevertheless, long-term investors provide a solid foundation. The BTC supply that has not moved for at least six months has a new one all time high reached, reports analyst On-Chain College. 15.2 million coins, or 78% of the circulating supply, have been idle for more than six months.
The #Bitcoin supply that has not moved in at least 6 months just reached an all-time high.
-~15.2 million coins have not moved in at least 6 months
-That’s about 78% of the circulating supply
-Supply last active 7+ years rises to over 3.9 million coins
-Normal, cyclical patterns pic.twitter.com/2uX1rY7Sq6— On-Chain College (@OnChainCollege) May 21, 2023
This also applies to the supply that has not moved for at least a year. This stock has reached an all-time high of 68%, reports analyst James V. Straten. Both numbers are a strong sign of confidence among bitcoin investors.
#Bitcoin Supply, last active 1+ year ago, has hit a new all-time high and surpassed 68% for the first time.
We are now firmly in the capitulation zone from last year’s Luna collapse, as #Bitcoin dropped from $48,000 to $19,000. pic.twitter.com/iOQugTlfBS
— James V. Streets (@jimmyvs24) May 21, 2023
Bitcoin pizza day today
Finally, today is ‘Bitcoin Pizza Day.’ On this day 13 years ago, Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC. Bitcoin is said to be worth as much as $268 million today.
13 years ago, Laszlo Hanyecz, a Floridian programmer, bought 2 Papa John’s pizzas for 10,000 $BTC. Today, those pizzas would be valued at $267 million.
Happy #Bitcoin Pizza Day, everyone! 🍕 pic.twitter.com/OlJcFfOAG7
— CoinGecko (@coingecko) May 22, 2023
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