Bitcoin Still Struggling at $30,000, Analyst Sees Bottom Below $20,000

Bitcoin (BTC) was able to recover slightly last night. However, the price is still in the same tight range while fear and uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market and traditional markets are very high. It is therefore questionable whether bitcoin has the momentum to climb out of this range quickly.

Bitcoin price rises by 2%

The bitcoin price was again rejected on Monday at $30,500 and then fell towards $29,000. The price initially held above $29,250, but made a dip to $28,750 late yesterday afternoon.

Bitcoin then immediately made a rebound, but failed to break $29,500 straight away. That was successful by midnight, and bitcoin briefly peaked above $30,000 early this morning, peaking around $30,175.

This morning, however, bitcoin fell slightly again and the price currently stands at $29,800 on KuCoin and $27,900 on Bitvavo. This means that the BTC price is 2% in the plus today. That means bitcoin is still stuck in the same range.

Bitcoin correlation with DXY and SPX

Stock markets like Nasdaq and S&P 500 did turn red yesterday, suggesting further decoupling, although correlations are still very high. DXY rose slightly, but the price is currently approaching resistance again.

Analyst Caleb Franzen notes that when DXY rose sharply in April, SPX fell twice as much and BTC as much as five times as much. However, since DXY has been falling for the past two weeks, SPX and BTC have barely reacted. According to the analyst, this may mean that investors in risky markets do not yet believe that DXY’s downward trend will continue, although he admits they could be wrong.

In any case, there seems to be a good chance that bitcoin will only really have room to rise again when the macro looks healthier again. Then you may need to quantitative tightening (QT) policy of the Federal Reserve is softening and that may require inflation first. The minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be released later today, which may provide more insight into this policy.

Where is the bitcoin bottom?

In the bitcoin world, of course, there is currently a discussion about where the bottom of the BTC price is. Analyst Ali Martinez reports that 8.36 million BTC are now in loss. The last three times this offering has surpassed 8.61 million BTC signaled the end of the bear market.

Analyst Rekt Capital reports that historically bitcoin usually bottoms around 200 weeks simple moving average, although the rate can still be a wick or dip more than 14% below it. The 200-week SMA is currently around $22,000 and a 14% dip from that price would take the price to $19,000. That does not necessarily mean that bitcoin will actually fall that low.

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