Bitcoin (BTC) has had a very strong month. The price is up more than 20% in July and that is the strongest increase since October 2021, shortly before bitcoin’s all time high (ATH) of $69,000.
Market sentiment is therefore starting to become more positive. However, bitcoin is still almost 66% below its ATH and the market is mainly talking about a bear market or relief rally and not yet about one bull market.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 39 ~ Neutral
Current price: $23,663 pic.twitter.com/4RVh9zHJHJ— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) July 31, 2022
Bitcoin price rises 20% in July, but falls 1.2% today
The bitcoin price was still just below $19,000 on July 1, and peaked at $22,000 a week later. Bitcoin was then rejected here and fell back to $19,000, but then surged again and then peaked around $24,200 on July 20.
The price then fell again quickly, but this time found enough support at the $21,000 mark and then resumed its rally. Last Friday, bitcoin knocked back at $24,000, but the resistance was still too great.
However, bitcoin broke through this briefly yesterday afternoon and even peaked at $24,600, the highest price since June 13. After that, however, bitcoin quickly plummeted again and it failed to recapture $23,800 this morning.
The BTC price currently stands at $23,700 on KuCoin and $23,200 on Bitvavo. The BTC rate is therefore 1.2% in the minus today, but 5% in the plus this week and 20% in the plus this month.
Bitcoin and the 200-week moving average
The 200-week moving average serves as a key resistance level for the first time in the price’s history, as analyst Caleb Franzen points out below. The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) is currently around $22,800 and the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $26,750. If the price breaks through this, turning this area into support, it could be a bullish be a sign.
#Bitcoin marching above $24.5k, trading within the 200-week moving average cloud.
200EMA 🔵 = $26.7K
200 SMA = $22.8KI’ve been wary that this level could act as resistance for the first time in $BTC‘s history, but a breakout above this range could flip it to support! pic.twitter.com/PLz7xZqzRo
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) July 30, 2022
Then the BTC price may first have to hold above $23,200, as Decentrader indicates below. That would be a higher low and that may also be a bullish sign. If that doesn’t work, a lot of support should be around $22,200 and $22,500 by now. However, that does not mean that a decline below is excluded.
$BTC coming off the last few hours down $1000 from today’s high and painting a shooting star candle. If price falls further it would be bullish to hold $23,200. Below there $22,500 – $22,200 should find some strong support. https://t.co/vlj2eEE9bn
— Decentrader (@decentrader) July 30, 2022
Bitcoin on exchanges continues to decline
Meanwhile, the amount of bitcoins on exchanges continues to decrease. Since March 2020, BTC exchange balances have fallen by 4.6%, reports analytics firm Glassnode. The exchanges now hold only 12.6% of the circulating supply, or 2.4 million BTC. it is a sign that more and more BTC is being held by investors and that is bullish for the long term.
#Bitcoin balance on exchanges continues its macro decline, reaching 12.6% of the Circulating Supply (2.4M $BTC).
Exchange balances have now seen a macro outflow of over 4.6% of the circulating supply since the March 2020 ATH.
Live Chart: https://t.co/zJnfaG05zt pic.twitter.com/vhKCudqGUr
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 29, 2022
In addition, analyst On-Chain College reports that the number of addresses with at least 0.01 BTC also continues to climb. This is now above 10.5 million addresses.
The number of #Bitcoin addresses with at least 0.01 BTC has been steeply climbing, now at over 10.5 million addresses pic.twitter.com/3inwRvTlW2
— OnChain College (@OnChainCollege) July 29, 2022
Crypto Insiders Premium for bitcoin analytics
Do you want to receive more in-depth bitcoin analyses? Then we would like to refer you to our Discord community for members. Ask analysts questions, chat with our fanatic community and receive daily technical and fundamental analysis of bitcoin, but also other crypto. Through Discord Premium we can share knowledge with each other 24/7 and we try to stay ahead of the market together with our members.
#bitcoin halving index pic.twitter.com/7yO63nNDsL
— ChartsBTC (@ChartsBtc) July 30, 2022
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences and are for educational purposes only.