Bitcoin, the digital currency everyone watches, just did something remarkable. It broke its old price rules, hitting new highs a whopping six times already in 2025. This week, it even soared past $126,000. This big shift suggests that Bitcoin has finally outgrown its predictable four-year pattern, a cycle driven by events that cut new coin rewards in half.
This latest leap, though followed by a sharp drop and a record $19 billion market sell-off, solidifies an unmatched climb for Bitcoin this year. It also backs up a growing idea: Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, often tied to its halving events, is now a thing of the past. Two recent analyses, one from K33 Research and another from crypto expert Arthur Hayes, agree on this. They argue that new forces, like big companies buying in and widespread economic changes, have changed Bitcoin’s old ways. This opens the door for a steadier, yet less predictable, rising market this year.
Bitcoin’s Record-Breaking Run in 2025
Bitcoin’s rise in 2025 has been dramatic. After setting multiple records in 2024—including its first break above the $100,000 mark in December—the cryptocurrency has continued its unprecedented climb. It’s now logged six new all-time highs this year alone. This is a very different pace than before.
In January, Bitcoin touched $109,350. This topped the $103,332 peak from 2024 and put it close to $110,000. March saw another high at $111,000, helped by brighter outlooks for crypto rules and the economy in the United States. By May, Bitcoin hit $112,509. Then, in less than two months, it confirmed a new level above $115,000, almost reaching $120,000. August brought a peak of $124,457, with prices rising on the 11th, 13th, and 14th. Now, October has set the latest record at $126,198. This string of new highs marks the first time Bitcoin has seen so many consecutive records over two years. It easily beats the 2020-2021 surge, which had about four major all-time highs total. That earlier rally was fueled by early institutional adoption, pandemic relief funds, and events like Tesla’s investment.
A New Era: The Four-Year Cycle Is Over
Historically, Bitcoin’s price moved in cycles linked to its “halving” events. These network events, which happen every four years, cut the rewards for mining new blocks in half. They remind everyone that Bitcoin is scarce. This cycle usually led to big price jumps followed by deep drops.
But things are different now. Experts are starting to say “this time is truly different,” a point made by K33 Research in a report this week. Both K33 Research and Arthur Hayes share the main idea: the end of predictable four-year cycles for Bitcoin. However, they each point to different reasons for this big change.
Institutional Players Are Changing the Game
K33 Research believes the main game-changer is institutional adoption. This has turned Bitcoin from a risky niche asset into a regular part of traditional finance. K33’s report highlights the market’s growth, with more Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Limits, like Morgan Stanley’s 4% allocation for institutional portfolios, show how mature the market has become. This maturity has removed the old cycle’s predictability.
“Institutional adoption has gone from a dream to a real thing,” the K33 team explains. They note that even with signs of short-term overheating, like an 8% weekly rally with low volatility, the bigger picture supports ongoing growth. This could help other digital currencies once global issues, such as a government shutdown in the U.S., are settled.
“The 4-Year Cycle Is Dead,” Says Hayes
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a respected voice in crypto, offers a similar, yet distinct, argument. His focus is on the global economy. In his essay, “Long Live the King!”, reviewed by CoinDesk, Hayes states clearly that “BTC’s four-year cycle is dead.” He explains that past market crashes (like in 2014, 2018, and 2022) weren’t caused by halvings directly. Instead, they were due to less available fiat money.
Hayes sees a “flood of liquidity” coming in today’s economy. This includes the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, a new focus on Japan’s Abenomics, and China’s efforts to fight deflation. He expects this flood to keep the rising market alive. “A Bitcoin crash is off the table,” he says, stressing that fiat money will be “cheaper and more plentiful.” This, he believes, will cancel out old patterns and keep Bitcoin climbing without the usual cyclical crashes.
Bitcoin Makes $100,000 Its Home
Both experts ultimately agree: the broken four-year cycle isn’t a temporary blip. It’s the result of deep changes as the cryptocurrency market grows up. K33 points to institutional integration as the anchor that brings stability. Hayes, on the other hand, highlights monetary policies as the fuel keeping things going.
These new dynamics explain why 2024-2025 has been so different for Bitcoin’s price. It far outshines previous periods. For instance, in 2013, Bitcoin only had two all-time highs, with no consistent growth in nearby years. There are no other examples of multiple record breaks in back-to-back years before 2020-2021.
As we go to press, Bitcoin sits around $112,000. This follows a steep fall triggered by renewed worries about a trade war between the United States and China. Though the price is 11.4% lower than its last record, Bitcoin still shows a gain of almost 20% for the year and 78.8% over the past 12 months. Analysts caution that while hope is high, risks like market swings and the impact of global events could still dictate the price. Yet, with Bitcoin making $100,000 its new normal and the market gaining more legitimacy daily, the message is clear. The king of cryptocurrencies has changed, leaving its old cyclical crown behind for a more lasting throne. Could $200,000 be its next top, as some experts predict?
Sources: K33 Research, CoinDesk