Bitcoin closed October with its first monthly loss in seven years, disrupting a historical trend of strong gains and leaving the market in a state of indecision around the $110,000 mark.
The flagship cryptocurrency posted a 3.69% decline for the month, a significant departure from its “Uptober” pattern. This marks the first negative October for Bitcoin since 2018, when it registered a 3.83% loss.
Historically, October has been a consistently bullish month for Bitcoin. Data from Coinglass shows the digital asset averaged gains of around 20% in October since 2013, with a median return of 14.7%. Only two of the past thirteen Octobers (up to 2024) had closed in the red.
This deviation is notable as October often initiates a strong year-end rally. The last three months of the year have typically been Bitcoin’s best performing period, with an average quarterly return of 79.26% since 2013.
The month began with a burst of optimism as Bitcoin briefly touched a new all-time high above $126,000. However, this peak was short-lived.
An “unprecedented” wave of mass liquidations followed, with over $19 billion wiped out in a 24-hour period. This dramatic event on October 10 caused Bitcoin’s price to drop momentarily below $105,000.
Fears of a trade war between China and the United States were cited as a primary driver of the liquidations. Broader macroeconomic factors, including US Federal Reserve policy decisions, a government shutdown, and US-China trade tensions, have also injected uncertainty into the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin has since struggled to regain upward momentum, trading within a tight range of $108,655 to $110,845 during the Halloween holiday. Its inability to definitively reclaim the $110,000 level underscores persistent market indecision.
Low trading volume further highlights this lack of conviction. Analysts describe the market as being in a “lateral limbo,” unable to decide between a recovery or a further downturn.
Key resistance levels for Bitcoin are identified at $112,000 and $115,000. A sustained break above $112,000, supported by higher volume, would be necessary to shift the current market narrative and ignite short-term positive momentum.
The bearish sentiment also extended to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded a net negative outflow of $607 million last week. Despite these immediate challenges, some analysts maintain long-term optimism regarding Bitcoin’s underlying trend.
As of this report, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $109,892. This represents little change over the past 24 hours and a 13% decline from its highs at the start of October. Investors are now cautiously awaiting Bitcoin’s next major move.