Bitcoin (BTC) continues to fall for now and dipped as low as $25,865 last night, the lowest price since mid-March. This morning the price recovers slightly and wrestles with the 200-week moving average. At the time of writing, the BTC price stands at $26,200 on Binance and $24,420 on Bitvavo. This puts the bitcoin price down 2.1% today. The total market capitalization is $507 billion and the dominance is 46.1%. The Fear & Greed Index comes out at 50 (Neutral).
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 50 — Neutral
Current price: $27,203 pic.twitter.com/ddfnghWr9z— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) May 23, 2023
Drama about US debt ceiling
Yesterday, bitcoin lost traction at support around the 100-day moving average of $26,700 as it became clear that there is still no deal on the US debt ceiling. The drama surrounding this is currently gripping the financial markets.
Debt ceiling theater nuke pic.twitter.com/hR21C0pS9W
— Steven (@Dogetoshi) May 24, 2023
In addition, Fitch Ratings, one of the major US credit rating agencies, is threatening to downgrade the US’s “perfect” credit rating if the debt ceiling issues are not resolved quickly.
#BREAKING Fitch places US rating on watch for possible downgrade amid debt ceiling showdown pic.twitter.com/yukVifkML2
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) May 24, 2023
FOMC minutes not exactly positive
Yesterday, the so-called Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, or the minutes of the last interest rate meeting of the US central bank, were also published. This showed that the members of the Federal Reserve think inflation is still too high, but that they are divided on whether further interest rate hikes are necessary. A “mild” recession is also expected this year. All in all, the minutes did not exactly reassure the markets.
We have posted the minutes from the #FOMC meeting held May 2-3, 2023: https://t.co/e2F1b549RX
— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) May 24, 2023
The 200-week moving average
After losing grip on the 100-day moving average, bitcoin initially found support around the infamous 200-week moving average. However, after last night’s deep dip, this limit now seems possible to turn from support to resistance. It is therefore important for the bulls to get back up quickly. According to Decentrader there are already some whales buying around 200WMA.
It seems that #Bitcoin Whales are somewhat interested at price around the 200WMA.
Wallets holding at least 1000 $BTC have been increasing (slightly) as price has been getting closer to the 200WMA.
These had been decreasing relentlessly for over a year, but seems to have… https://t.co/Y0UCt1HnLP pic.twitter.com/KsgESq0Z0h
— Decentrader (@decentrader) May 25, 2023
How low can bitcoin fall?
If the price cannot get a grip on the 200-week moving average, many analysts fear that bitcoin could go even deeper. The next limit may be $25,000, as analyst Maartunn points out.
There are very many bids stacked around the $25k area for #Bitcoin
Try it yourself? 👇 https://t.co/3tvFr4iqos pic.twitter.com/cQs0o2sQeo
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) May 24, 2023
According to analyst Ali Martinez, the next major support area after that is between $23,200 and $24,000, where some 340,000 BTC was bought.
Notice that #Bitcoin appears to be losing all major areas of support. This increases the probability of a correction to the next important demand wall between $23,200 and $24,000, where 850,000 addresses had previously purchased 340,000 $BTC. pic.twitter.com/IvBLJKiSVw
— Ali (@ali_charts) May 24, 2023
Analyst company Glassnode is looking even lower, at the area between the 200-day and 365-day moving averages. This area is between $22,300 and $22,600.
When evaluating for common technical pricing models, we note that the #Bitcoin spot price remains marginally above the currently equivalent 111 DMA and 200 WMA, providing a region of support.
In the event of a volatile move below the aforementioned models, the confluence between… pic.twitter.com/4Dr0fmyyig
— glassnode (@glassnode) May 24, 2023
Gold is already recovering somewhat stronger
Gold is also struggling somewhat this month, but has been making a small recovery in recent hours. As a result, gold is currently around $1,961 per troy ounce and the price is up 0.3% today.
Gold prices rebound today, up 0.3% to close at $1,975.39 an ounce. As US debt ceiling talks reach a deadlock and the dollar retreats from highs, gold’s shine doesn’t seem to be dimming! #GoldPrice #GoldFutures #BuyGold
— Matador (@buymatador) May 24, 2023
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