Prediction market platform Kalshi confirmed on Thursday, Nov. 12, that it has terminated its paid strategic advisory contract with Donald Trump Jr. after his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, committed roughly $300 million to lead a $1 billion funding round for rival Polymarket.
That latest commitment, layered on top of roughly $200 million 1789 Capital invested earlier, brings the firm’s total backing of Polymarket to approximately $500 million if the round closes as planned, a 1789 Capital spokesperson confirmed to Benzinga. For retail traders and institutional investors, the exit ends an unusual arrangement in which the president’s eldest son advised both of the largest competing event-contract exchanges in the United States just as incoming Democratic congressional majorities prepare stricter oversight of the sector.
Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever said in a statement to Reuters and The Guardian that discussions to end the partnership began in August when 1789 Capital led Polymarket’s latest fundraising round. “We have mutually agreed to end Don’s advisory role after his firm’s significant investment in a competitor this past summer. We are grateful for his contributions in helping us market Kalshi to more customers,” Lever said.
What happens to Trump Jr.’s equity and Polymarket role
Trump Jr., who is a partner at 1789 Capital, joined New York-based Kalshi as a strategic adviser in January 2025 to help attract users, expand marketing reach, and build corporate partnerships. He was compensated with an equity stake that the Financial Times valued at approximately $300,000 at the time of his appointment.
Since then, Kalshi’s valuation has climbed sharply. The company raised $1 billion in October 2026 at a $40 billion valuation, up roughly 50-fold from its $787 million valuation in October 2024 before Trump Jr. came on board, and nearly double Polymarket’s $21 billion valuation. Neither Kalshi nor Reuters disclosed whether Trump Jr. still holds his Kalshi shares following the end of his advisory contract, and neither Trump Jr. nor Polymarket immediately responded to requests for comment.
Seven months after signing with Kalshi, Trump Jr. also joined Polymarket’s advisory board in August 2025 alongside 1789 Capital’s initial investment in the rival platform. At the time, a spokesperson for Trump Jr. told Front Office Sports, “This doesn’t change anything regarding Don’s role with Kalshi,” and he remains an adviser to Polymarket following his departure from Kalshi, Bloomberg and CNBC reported.
Competing platforms and regulatory scrutiny in Congress
As background, prediction markets let users buy and sell yes-or-no contracts priced on the likelihood of real-world outcomes, ranging from elections and Federal Reserve decisions to sports games. Both Kalshi and Polymarket surged in U.S. trading volume during the 2024 presidential election and compete directly for liquidity, users, and market share.
Under the Trump administration, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), led by Chair Mike Selig, backed prediction markets’ nationwide expansion and dropped a Biden-era proposal that would have barred sports and political event contracts. That federal stance clashed with state gaming regulators in Nevada, Michigan, and Washington, which obtained court orders blocking Kalshi’s sports contracts. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have denied that their financial ties to the Trump family influenced federal regulatory decisions.
While Kalshi stated that politics played no part in ending Trump Jr.’s contract, two people familiar with internal company discussions told Reuters that some Kalshi employees had raised concerns about potential political fallout after Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections, including flipping a Mississippi Senate seat.
Democratic lawmakers have already signaled tougher scrutiny ahead of the new congressional session starting in January 2027. Responding to CFTC Chair Mike Selig in a post on X, Nevada Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto wrote, “Let’s be clear about what’s happening: the Trump family is heavily invested in prediction market platforms” as CoinDesk reported. California Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna has called for a ban on sports-related event contracts, while Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren vowed to crack down on insider trading on prediction markets.