France’s National Gaming Authority (ANJ) just pulled the plug on Polymarket. On July 16, regulators ordered internet service providers to completely sever access to the prediction market across the country. The escalation comes after a late-2024 financial transaction ban failed entirely, with citizens easily bypassing the geofence using standard VPNs.
The numbers explain the panic. In June 2026 alone, the platform recorded 578,751 visits originating from French IP addresses. The ANJ cited 205,057 unique visitors during that period as justification to formally reclassify the platform as an illegal gambling operation. Regulators now argue that simply displaying live betting odds to a French citizen is a criminal advertising offense carrying fines up to €100,000.
Physical Hacks and Classified Bets
This isn’t just about unsanctioned cryptocurrency trading anymore. The regulatory hammer dropped following a string of high-stakes integrity breaches that spilled from the digital data feeds into the physical world. In April, Météo-France filed a criminal complaint after malicious actors physically hacked their weather probes to rig weather-based prediction markets. That triggered a formal cybercrime investigation on May 4.
The chaos reached the highest levels of global security. Authorities caught a U.S. soldier using classified intelligence regarding a January operation to capture Nicolás Maduro to net over $400,000 in wagers. Meanwhile, the government suspended a White House teleprompter operator for betting on presidential speeches.
The Fredi9999 Fallout
France’s specific frustration traces back to a whale trader known as “Fredi9999” who successfully manipulated political odds and extracted $50 million from U.S. election wagers late last year. That incident initiated the first wave of financial blocks.
But blocking bank cards didn’t work. The ANJ realized that as long as the URLs load, the wagers continue. France now joins a growing list of over 33 jurisdictions—including Germany, Italy, Spain, Romania, and the Czech Republic—that enforce network-level restrictions against the platform for lacking local gambling licenses and skipping strict Know Your Customer protocols.
Criminalizing Network Access
The ANJ’s ISP mandate establishes a sweeping new legal precedent for European web architecture. By reclassifying the mere accessibility of live odds as illegal solicitation, regulators are shifting the burden of enforcement from financial payment rails directly to the network pipelines.
This European blackout creates a fascinating divergence across the Atlantic. While Polymarket gets chased off the continent, its U.S.-regulated rival Kalshi is aggressively expanding. Backed by federal protection from the CFTC against state-level bans, Kalshi recently partnered with AppliedXL to launch trading markets on FDA regulatory decisions. The prediction market industry isn’t dying. It is just fracturing along heavily fortified national borders.