Prediction markets grew from a niche internet experiment into a sprawling financial sector. Trading volumes across the industry surpassed $130 billion in 2026. Now, Mark Zuckerberg wants a piece of the action.
Meta Platforms is building a new experimental smartphone app called “Arena.” First reported by The New York Times on Tuesday, the app lets users forecast future outcomes across politics, sports, entertainment, and world affairs.
A small internal team is building Arena as a standalone product. The platform will operate completely independently from Meta’s core suite of apps, meaning you will not find it baked into Facebook, Instagram, or WhatsApp.
At launch, the app relies on a video-game-style points system rather than cash wagers. But Meta has not explicitly ruled out introducing real-money betting down the road.
This is not Zuckerberg’s first attempt at gamified forecasting. The company previously launched a crowdsourced prediction app called “Forecast” in 2020 to track pandemic trends, though the project failed to gain traction and shut down in 2022.
The threat of Meta directing its 3.56 billion daily visitors toward a betting platform immediately rattled the industry. Following the news, shares of DraftKings fell as much as 2%, Flutter Entertainment dropped roughly 2%, and Robinhood also experienced a decline.
Why the Points System Protects Meta from the CFTC
Meta’s decision to stick to a points-based system at launch is a highly calculated move. Real-money prediction markets are currently facing intense regulatory scrutiny across the United States.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) heavily monitors event contracts tied to sensitive geopolitical events. The commission increasingly classifies many of these contracts as prohibited gaming activities rather than legitimate financial hedging.
By keeping Arena focused on virtual points, Meta completely sidesteps the regulatory friction slowing down its competitors. If the app gains popularity, the company can establish a dominant user base before ever touching the legal red tape of real-money wagering.