If we Matrixport’s latest research report to be believed, it is mainly American institutional investors behind the current upturn in Bitcoin. In addition, they say that a strong start to the year is generally a good sign for the rest of the year. In five of the six years that Bitcoin rebounded in January, it also ended those years with positive results.
Increase of 245 percent?
Markus Thielen, the head of Matrixport’s research department, shares with us that Bitcoin rose by an average of 245 percent during those years. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee anything at all for the current vintage, but it’s a promising statistic. The only year Bitcoin fell after a green open in January was in 2014. Back then, Bitcoin peaked in the bull market in January 2014, but that is not the case in this case.
In 2023, the January rebound is mostly a jump up from the provisional bear market bottom of around $15,500. If Bitcoin does indeed experience the 245 percent increase in 2023, the price could reach $ 45,000 by Christmas this year. This means that we are still quite far from the all-time high, but at least it is starting to look like something again.
On the way to halving
According to Matrixport, the halving may well become the driving force behind the bull market of 2023. It is striking that they are already talking about a bull market in this case, because that has yet to be confirmed. So far things are going great with the price in 2023, but it seems really too early for the stamp bull market at the moment. All signs are good, but as The Youth of Today said in Stardust: “Well begun is half done. But a good start is only half the battle.”
For now, the halving of 2024 is planned for the period March to April of that year. At that point, the reward miners receive for producing a new block is halved. Currently, that reward is 6.25 Bitcoin and after the next halving it drops to 3.125 Bitcoin per block. Usually Bitcoin does well leading up to the halving, but there are no guarantees in this industry.