Youth revolution in Europe

He is a young player with a lot of potential. If I were already scoring 40 goals in Spain or wherever, it would be unattainable. This is the \ It \ him timinggetting these guys right at a time when they’re not yet scoring 55 goals a season or something like that. That is why we are really convinced,” Klopp said the day after announce the signing of Cody Gakpo, 23, for a figure close to 50 million euros.

In this way, the German coach explained how clubs, even the biggest ones like Liverpool, have adapted to the new paradigm in the transfer market. The football transfer bubble has grown so large that it becomes a utopia to sign a proven player and, therefore, each time he signs younger. The priority is projection.

The idea is to get ahead of the others when the player hasn’t fully exploded yet so that when they do, they’ll already be wearing your jersey. Liverpool took Gakpo ahead of Manchester United, who already showed interest in the summer and planned to return to the charge in January. The networks they are also starring, together with Real Madrid, in the race for the next big star. And Bellingham is only 19 years old.

The English international will cost well over 100 million euros, which they already are. But it is that both are convinced that they need his signing because if they do not hunt him down now, they will surely not be able to opt for him again until his contract ends. Barcelona knows it well with Verratti, for example, or any other club that has thought of taking the Italian out of Paris.

The signings of the big stars established in the elite already only occur in two ways and neither is the classic negotiation between two teams. The first is that the player ends his contract. This is how players of the stature of Messi, Pogba or Sergio Ramos were transferred. And the second is that he does not finish his contract, but that he is so close that he forces the owner club to accept a transfer and even lower his price to prevent him from leaving for free. The cases of Hazard, Mané or Lewandowski. There are very few cases of players who have moved between big clubs when they were between 25 and 30 years old, the best years of any footballer.

Having limited the potential targets, it can be seen how investment in the youngest has been growing since Neymar, in 2013, was involved in one of the most impressive transfers in football. For the first time, more than 50 million euros were paid for an under-23 player (at that time, the Brazilian was 21) since Buffon, an absolute exception in his time. Since then, the number of under-23 players who have come at such a heavy price has only increased. The coronavirus crisis stopped this trend, but in this 2022/23 it has touched its peakwith eleven players meeting these parameters.

Transfers of under-23 players for more than €50M in the last ten years.

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Transfers of under-23 players for more than €50M in the last ten years.

For the 2023/24 season, RB Leipzig have already signed Benjamin Sesko. And for the next one, Madrid has closed Endrick. Both are a little less expensive, but they are a clear example of this dynamic that is taking place in the world of football. Among the top-10 most expensive signings this season, there is only one (Casemiro) over 25 years of age. This winter market has been a scandal in this regard. Of the top-15 most expensive signings for this month of January, there is only one (Trossard) over 23 years of age. Enzo Fernández, Mudryk, Gordon, Gakpo, Badiashile, Madueke, Vitinha, Malo Gusto…

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But signing so young is a double-edged sword. You save many millions of a potential signing when the player is already mature, but you also risk that what you have seen that promises does not end up proving it. This has happened with several of the most expensive signings in the history of football. Barça reinvested the proceeds from Neymar’s clause in Coutinho and Dembélé, two players who have performed less than expected. The same thing happened to Atlético, when they wanted to replace Griezmann with João Félix. At Manchester United they expected more regularity from Pogba, Jadon Sancho or Martial. The latter was one of the first major transfers for a promise and one of the variables that Monaco included in the negotiation was an extra payment in the event that the Frenchman wins the Ballon d’Or.

The market, therefore, has become a race to see who gets there the fastest and who finds the most secure talent. And, of course, after taking care of these players so that they end up performing at the highest level when they carry the pressure of a price that they are slaves to without having asked for it.

Madrid, pioneer

Vinicius and Rodrygo, during the World Cup in Qatar with Brazil.

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Vinicius and Rodrygo, during the World Cup in Qatar with Brazil.Chris RiccoDiary AS

One of the teams that has signed the most young talent to exploit in recent years has been Real Madrid. Even being one of the most economically powerful clubs in the world, it has also adapted to these new times. Gone are the galactic signings of Florentino Pérez, those who practically represented record numbers like Cristiano or Bale.

surely the first wonder kid that was a media bomb was Martin Odegaard. The Norwegian spent several weeks visiting the best sports cities in Europe to choose a destination until he was convinced by Madrid.

But when Madrid attracted the most attention was when it entered the Brazilian market. The first big disbursement was that of Vinicius. It was announced in May 2017. Only a year later, Rodrygo arrived. Both cost 45 million and had barely played with the first team of their country. The formula was repeated with Reinierin January 2020. And the last one has been Endrickin this past month of December.

Until now, nobody complains about this transfer policy because several of them are being a total success. The most obvious case is that of Vinicius’ ex. His market value has more than tripled since he was signed from Brazil. Rodrygo, for his part, has doubled it compared to his value when he left Santos. Also Militao and Tchouameni. It is not the case of Camavinga due to the loss of minutes that he has had in Spain compared to what he had in France, but it is normal for him to grow in the coming years.

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The risk that exists signing such young players has also been suffered by Madrid. Theo, Odegaard or Brahim did not give the expected level playing with the white shirt and they had to go out to explode. Jovic, for example, was never able to replicate what he achieved in 2018/19 with Eintracht. But all the successes more than make up for these disappointments. How much would Vinicius be worth right now? Would it be possible for a club to put up enough money to convince Madrid to sell it? Does that number exist?

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