The elections followed the scenario predicted by the polls. Democratic Progressive Party (PDP) candidate William Lai Ching-te won with more than 40% of the vote, ahead of his opponents from the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT). Hou Yu-yiand the Taiwan People's Party (PPT), Ko Wen-je, in historic elections for this autonomous island that lives under the constant threat of Xi Jinping's China. The sovereigntist party secured a third consecutive term in office, unprecedented in Taiwan's young but militant democracy, although it showed signs of wear and tear after eight years in power and lost its comfortable parliamentary majority. From now on, Lai's people will have to build bridges with the opposition in the Legislative Yuan if they want to advance their agenda aimed at maintaining the current “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait and assuaging domestic political problems.
“Taiwan is telling the whole world that between democracy and authoritarianism, we choose to be on the side of democracy,” stressed the new winner, seen by China as an “agitator” seeking de facto independence for the island. Therefore, Beijing's reaction was immediate. “The Taiwan issue is an internal matter of China. Whatever changes take place in Taiwan, the fundamental fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is a part of China will not change,” the spokesman said Chinese Foreign Ministry. Hua Chunying. “We believe that the international community will continue to uphold the one-China principle and support the just cause of the Chinese people to oppose 'Taiwan independence'.” Christopher H. SharmanDirector of the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI), analyzes the situation in conversation with LA RAZÓN.
Many influential voices considered these elections to be the most important for the island this century. What was at stake?
It was an election about Taiwan and the political choices its people would make. Regardless of which party wins, the People's Republic of China (PRC) will continue a comprehensive pressure campaign to unify Taiwan. We will continue to see Beijing expand its military capabilities so that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has military options against Taiwan. We will see Beijing strategically maneuver in the diplomatic space to reduce Taiwan's maneuverability on the international stage. It will continue to exert economic pressure and use its media tools to try to influence and undermine its democracy.
William Lai Ching-te seemed a clear favorite. Did you expect any surprises?
In a democracy, any scenario is possible, but I'm paying more attention to China's response to the Taiwan election. The People's Republic of China has adopted the principle used by the KMT that a vote for the PDP is “a vote for war.” China was clearly monitoring the results of these elections, and a vote to maintain the “status quo” with a PDP victory is likely to provoke a reaction from Beijing. The answer would have to be visible to both China and Taiwan and the rest of the world. Beijing cannot afford to be docile; it has a domestic public it must appease. I'm also aware of some sort of military mobilization around Taiwan post-election. Accidents can occur during military mobilizations, high tensions, aircraft flying close together and ships operating close together. An accident is what worries me most at the moment. If the KMT had won, we would probably have seen a more moderate reaction from Beijing, which is not to say that there would not have been a reaction. Beijing must continue to push Taiwan toward unification regardless of which party wins the election.
Xi Jinping has increased the pressure with his recent comments on his “reunification” plans. Is a Chinese invasion likely in the short or medium term?
I call this period “the decade of greatest danger.” The PLA's capabilities are increasing. President Xi Jinping has already put Hong Kong under his spell, Xinjiang has been pacified by force, and separatism in Tibet does not currently pose a serious threat. In Beijing's view, the only remaining goal for national renewal is unification with Taiwan. Xi has stated that Taiwan should not be left to future generations to decide, and he is getting old. It is clear that the PLA is developing the necessary capabilities to provide the president with military options. But time isn't necessarily on your side. In a decade, demographic trends will begin to work against China. This is partly why this decade is so precarious. However, this does not mean that conflict is inevitable or desirable. Xi Jinping's first option is to achieve unification through “peaceful” means, although in his view strong coercion would be considered peaceful. China's military capabilities have improved significantly, but are not yet there. An invasion of Taiwan would be the most complex and difficult military operation the People's Liberation Army could undertake and would be extremely costly. Instead of a short-term invasion, I expect an intensified, comprehensive pressure campaign that includes economic components, military coercion, information warfare and diplomatic maneuvers against Taiwan.