Why is Orban blocking this financial aid package?
Viktor Orban blocked 50 billion euros in aid money for Ukraine, especially while the European Union (EU) blocked 6.3 billion euros in cohesion funds for Hungary on rule of law grounds. Orban, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in the EU, had said he wanted to force a rethink of the bloc’s policy towards Ukraine and questioned the idea of providing funds to Kiev over the next four years. The EU has released funding to Hungary in order for the Hungarian prime minister to withdraw his objections to aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the new funding, saying it would strengthen the country’s economic and financial stability. It is also a signal to Putin that Ukraine is currently in a reasonably stable economic situation.
Do you think that without United States financial aid blocked in Congress, Ukraine is doomed to lose the war?
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Biden administration has provided more than $70 billion in aid to Ukraine, including $44.2 billion in security assistance, $22.9 billion in direct budget support and $2.8 billion in humanitarian assistance. On October 20, 2023, the Administration submitted a new request to Congress for $106 billion in additional emergency funding in fiscal year 2024 for Ukraine, Israel, border security, and other purposes. About $61 billion of the funding went to Ukraine. The request remains under consideration in Congress and is being blocked by hard-line Republicans who believe funds destined for Ukraine should be redirected to U.S. border security. They also believe that European allies in NATO should shoulder more economic and military burdens by supporting Ukraine. For them, it’s about sharing the burden. This is also the opinion of Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee in the November 2024 presidential election. The Biden administration is struggling to get Congress to approve the funding. That’s a problem. The government hopes that Ukraine can maintain its front in the war. This is against the background of the stagnation of the Ukrainian spring and summer offensive from 2023 onwards. Without significant military and humanitarian assistance from the EU and the USA, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely to decline. That doesn’t necessarily mean Ukraine is losing the war, but it likely means a stalemate in the eastern regions, particularly where Russian troops have been stationed since 2014.
Should Germany supply Taurus long-range missiles after Britain and France sent their Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles?
The United Kingdom has made a proposal to Germany. London has suggested that Berlin could supply Taurus cruise missiles to the British army in exchange for Britain supplying Ukraine with its own Storm Shadow long-range missiles, which the Ukrainian air force has already deployed. Chancellor Scholz is currently examining this proposal after it was rejected by the Bundestag. Scholz fears that using Ukraine’s own Taurus missiles could be dangerous because they have a range of 500 kilometers and could be used by Ukraine to attack Russian cities. Scholz also fears that if German Taurus missiles are captured by Russian forces, their functionality could be revealed and copied; Germany wants to continue using the missiles well into the 2050s, and that is also a factor. The British proposal has broad support in Germany (including among the opposition CDU Christian Democrats) and gives Berlin additional options for stationing missiles in Ukraine.