The nuclear policeman lectures, Iran retaliates. In recent days, tension has escalated between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Tehran. Faced with criticism of “its lack of cooperation”, the latter announced that it had started production of 60% uranium on Tuesday and that it was going to limit visits by inspectors from the UN agency to its territory.
The decision of the Islamic Republic worries the international community, which did not fail to react. But as it faces internal revolts due to demonstrations linked to the death of Mahsa Amini, Iran seems determined to move forward on nuclear power. 20 minutes take stock with Héloïse Fayet, researcher specializing in nuclear proliferation doctrines.
What happened this Tuesday in Iran on the nuclear side?
Thursday, November 17, the IAEA issued a resolution against the Persian country, reproaching it for its “lack of cooperation” in nuclear matters. The UN agency had already issued criticism this summer, for the same reason. “We said that political pressure does not change anything and that the adoption of a resolution (at the IAEA) will provoke a serious reaction,” the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (AEIO) said on Tuesday. , Mohammad Eslami, while announcing the production of “60% enriched uranium” in the Fordo plant.
This threshold of 60% greatly exceeds that of 3.67% set by the 2015 agreement (JCPOA) between Tehran and the major powers aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic is thus dangerously close to the threshold of 90% enriched uranium, the level to be reached to produce this ultimate deterrent weapon. “The Iranian nuclear file is cyclical, even escalating: it is an endless dynamic between the IAEA, which criticizes the advances in enrichment and calls for new sanctions, and Iran, which reacts by continuing its program, sometimes by a vehement way”, analyzes Héloïse Fayet. A novelty, all the same: the public recognition by Iran of enriching uranium to 60%.
What can Iran do with this 60% enriched uranium?
Today, Iran has a reserve of 386.4 kilos of 20% uranium for “civilian or military applications” and more than 60 kilos of 60% enriched uranium. “The time required to go from 60% enrichment to 90% enrichment is much lower, compared to the operation which consists in enriching from 20% to 60%. The more enriched uranium you have, the easier it is to increase the enrichment,” explains 20 minutes Héloïse Fayet, also director of a research program called “Deterrence and Proliferation”.
With their provisions, the Iranians can constitute a bomb head or a nuclear missile. But obtaining weapons-grade uranium (90%) is not a sufficient condition for immediate use of this weapon. “The militarization of the nuclear charge, that is to say putting it on a missile and sending it precisely to your target, is a process that can take several years”, tempers Héloïse Fayet.
No immediate threat therefore, but vigilance is required. Because the monitoring of an enrichment process is easier to control than the final phase, that of the militarization of the head. In its arsenal, Tehran has Khoramshahr missiles, which could (in the future) carry a nuclear warhead and whose maximum range is around “2,000 kilometers”. The weapon would therefore not make it possible to hit the United States, a great enemy of Iranian power. On the other hand, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, regional rivals of Tehran, could find themselves under this threat.
Is the resumption of a dialogue between Iran and the West possible?
On the nuclear issue, the gap between Iran and the West is widening day by day. Western nations did not fail to respond to Tehran’s announcements. “Iran’s decision to increase its production of highly enriched uranium at the Fordo underground enrichment site is particularly worrying,” condemned London, Paris and Berlin on Tuesday. On the same day, the White House expressed its “deep concern” over the “advancement” of Iran’s nuclear program.
In 2015, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or Common Global Action Plan) signed between Tehran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, France, China, United Kingdom, United States), Germany and the European Union has defined a framework: limiting the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions against Tehran. Except that in 2018, the United States of Donald Trump left the agreement. “No one will dare to say officially that the agreement is dead, but there is almost no chance of returning to the negotiating table in the short term”, slice Héloïse Fayet.
Especially since the war in Ukraine has finished separating the protagonists. The exclusion of Russia from the international community has reinforced an anti-Western feeling of Iranian power, an ally of the Kremlin. With the Ukrainian conflict, the various players also no longer have the time to work towards a return to negotiations. And, finally, Tehran’s attitude towards IAEA inspections also exacerbates tensions (destruction of surveillance cameras, restrictions on controls, etc.).
“Since they resumed in 2021, we have never been at such a closed stage of negotiations”, summarizes Héloïse Fayet. Still, there is not yet a clearly displayed red line in this file, but if Iran reaches 90% enrichment, the United States or other countries like Israel will react “diplomatically or even militarily”, predicts our expert.