In 2024, around 4,000 million people with more than 50 nationalities will be called to vote. It is the year of democracy. Half of the world's population will vote in the coming months across Europe and in countries such as India, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States. Also in Russia, where there is continuity Wladimir Putin It's not even discussed. The results promise to completely change the landscape of international politics, and Taiwan is precisely one of the flashpoints. Nearly 20 million people will decide today what course this autonomous island, living in the shadow of China, will take over the next four years. Xi Jinping, who wants to cement his legacy with the “reunification” of an enclave that Beijing sees as a “rebellious province” with “separatist” impulses. On paper, Taiwanese have two options on the table ahead of this Saturday's presidential and legislative elections. On the one hand, follow the sovereign path proposed by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (PDP) under the leadership of current Vice President William Lai Ching-te. On the other hand, it is important to build bridges with Beijing after the ongoing escalation of tensions in recent years. A position that is represented to some extent by the candidates Hou Yu-yi And Ko Wen-je, candidates of the nationalist Kuomingtang (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (PPT). The International Republican Institute (IRI) analyst, J Michael Cole, who is in his fifth general election in Taiwan, admits to being “amazed by the vitality of the campaign and people’s attachment to their democracy.” The expert answers LA RAZÓN's questions on the eve of a crucial day.
Can the current “status quo” change after the elections?
It would be extremely difficult for any Taiwanese government to change the “status quo,” since this state of affairs – the island’s de facto independence – is what the majority of the Taiwanese population currently wants for themselves. It is Beijing that, through belligerence, threats of military force, and efforts at capture, co-optation, and influence, is seeking to change this “status quo” by annexing Taiwan against the will of the vast majority of its people. , regardless of whether you vote for the PDP, the KMT or the TPP.
Many influential voices consider these elections to be the most important for the island so far this century. What's in the game?
At stake is preserving Taiwan's democracy and its place in the world. These elections will determine whether Taiwan continues to partner with other democracies in maintaining and strengthening the rules-based international order or focuses more on its relations with China. And of course there is also the question of how China will react if the Taiwanese do not vote the way it expects them to. In other words, if they give the PDP another mandate, Beijing could decide to further destabilize the Taiwan Strait and endanger peace, all because of the way a free people exercises their right to decide their government .
Current vice president and candidate of the sovereign Democratic Progressive Party (PDP), William Lai Ching-te, appears to be a favorite, but polls show a particularly close result. Could there be any surprises?
Yes, William Lai was ahead in most polls, but there is always the possibility of surprises and no candidate, regardless of whether he is in the lead, should rest on his laurels. In every election in Taiwan, there is a significant group of “undecided voters” who can cause surprises. And of course the parliamentary elections will take place at the same time as the presidential elections on January 13th. Even if Lai is elected, there is a possibility that the PDP could lose its majority in parliament, which would affect its ability to fully implement its policies.
Xi Jinping has increased the pressure with his recent comments on his “reunification” plans. Is a Chinese invasion likely in the short or medium term?
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be an extraordinarily complex and risky undertaking for the People's Liberation Army. Xi cannot order it all at once, and we would see signs of preparation in China several months before a planned invasion. There is also every reason to believe that the PLA is not yet ready to launch this type of intervention and that it does not have sufficient skills, training and experience. And what gets them thinking, of course, is the very real possibility that the United States will intervene on Taiwan's side if China launches an attack on Taiwan. So Beijing is expected to continue using the People's Liberation Army to coerce and intimidate Taiwan for the foreseeable future, but this will be an exercise in psychological warfare rather than an attack. But there may come a day when the Chinese feel emboldened enough to do the unthinkable; Although such a scenario currently seems unlikely, Taiwan must continue to prepare for it just in case. And that is why it has reformed its military, a slow and drawn-out process that needs to be accelerated.