The Bitcoin (BTC) halving occurs every four years. This halves the Bitcoin rewards for miners. This effectively leads to a halving of the number of new Bitcoins coming onto the market. The “Supply shock” Historically, Bitcoin makes it more scarce and therefore more valuable. The next Bitcoin halving will take place in April.
According to a new study by investment fund Grayscale, known for the GBTC Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), the supply shock this time could be even more severe than in previous halvings. This has everything to do with the new Bitcoin spot ETFs.
This Bitcoin halving will be different
Currently, 6.25 BTC are mined in each Bitcoin block. At a price of $48,000, this represents $15.5 billion in annual selling pressure in BTC. After the halving, it will be 3,125 BTC per block and this selling pressure will also halve to around $7.5 billion. Provided, of course, that the prices remain the same.
After the halving, miners are often forced to sell some of their Bitcoins. The costs remain the same while the yield in BTC is halved. Bitcoin price often experiences an understandable decline shortly after halving. According to Grayscale, things could be different this time. The reason: the Bitcoin ETFs.
“Bitcoin ETFs can absorb significant selling pressure, potentially restructuring Bitcoin’s market structure and creating a new, stable source of demand. “That’s positive for the price,”
According to Grayscale, they believe that the ETFs can act as a kind of counterweight to the selling pressure that the Bitcoin price will face after the halving. To put it simply: Grayscale is very optimistic about the price of Bitcoin in the coming months.
Bitcoin ETFs are doing well
Meanwhile, demand for the recently launched Bitcoin exchange funds is steadily increasing. Last Friday, the total value of ETFs exceeded $10 billion. Blackrock’s IBIT is at the top with $4 billion in assets under management.
Additionally, research from BitMEX shows that the outflow from the GBTC fund has also decreased significantly in the last week. On Friday, outflows were just $52 million
Bitcoin ETF Flow – February 9th
GBTC outflow $52 million
— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) February 9, 2024