Science has analyzed and tracked this longevity. An article published in the magazine today Plus one Look at how most countries in the world have fared Improvements in life expectancy between 1990 and 2010, which shows progressive aging of the population for 30 years and how the process is likely to continue in the future.
The authors, researchers from Spain and the United Kingdom, asked whether there is convergence or divergence toward a single pattern mortality (People are dying more) and longevity (People tend to live longer) between different areas.
The study used new statistical approaches to analyze life expectancy at birth and eight other mortality indicators. Data and projections from 194 countries from the records of the United Nations Population Division were used.
“We measured this phenomenon nine indicators that capture the phenomenon of mortality and longevity from different perspectives. We thus group the countries according to the methodology Clusterswhich aims to bring together those with similar results,” he explains to SINC David AtanceResearcher at the University of Alcalá de Henares.
Experts noted that between 1990 and 2010, countries around the world may come together five groups depending on their mortality/longevity characteristics. “Without taking into account the developed countries, which all tend to be in the group with the best indicators, the rest tends to cluster around the continents,” he adds.
Furthermore, although the groups follow different paths, they have some similarities. “Several countries have changed theirs Clusters between the two moments – probably due to wars and adverse socio-economic and political conditions – but in general represent the configuration of the continents. This fact is very interesting because it refutes previous literature with far fewer indicators,” Atance continues.
Without taking into account the developed countries, which all tend to belong to the group with the best indicators, the remaining groups tend to cluster around the continents.
The largest changes in both sexes occurred in all African countries except those in the north. This can be explained by the levels of poverty, education, wars, inequalities and the fragility of the health system, which favors the rapid spread of epidemics such as HIV, Ebola or malaria.
Women's adoption of traditional bad habits from men may partially explain the narrowing of the mortality gap. / Helena Lopes, Pexels
The gap between men and women
Likewise, the new work shows that the Difference in mortality between men and women is gradually reduced. On the one hand, the difference in life expectancy between the two sexes will decrease due to the harmful effects of blue-collar jobs on men, although the global gap will remain in the future, as they are at higher risk of certain pathologies.
“A 2022 study shows that loss of the Y chromosome is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, heart disease, fibrosis or cardiac dysfunction,” indicates the Spanish expert. “Men tend to lose this chromosome during their aging process, while women do not, and this explains why their outcomes in terms of mortality and longevity will always be better,” he adds.
However, since the beginning of the 21st century, this difference has progressively narrowed over time. “Several studies attribute this to women picking up traditionally bad habits from men, such as: Alcohol consumption, tobacco and others are not cheap,” he says.
The researchers used their model to predict clusters in 2030 and found that these trends will continue. “Although these differences between men and women may narrow in the future, they are expected to persist,” concludes Atance.
Reference:
Atance D. et al.: “Convergence and divergence in mortality: A global study from 1990 to 2030”. PLUS ONE 2024.
This work was partially funded by the UB Longevity Institute Chair. The funders had no influence on study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.