Researcher Marina Miron also explains that Yemeni rebels' attacks on commercial ships are a form of protest against the war in Gaza and a sign of their solidarity with Hamas after the offensive that resulted from the Islamist attacks on October 7.
Could US and UK attacks on the Houthis lead to direct conflict with Iran?
At present, the likelihood of open confrontation appears low as Iran appears reluctant to enter into direct conflict with the US and UK, even given limited support for US troops in the Middle East. In addition, both the US and the UK would have to station ground troops, which would represent too much effort.
Can the bombings deter the Houthis or is the opposite likely to happen?
Following the recent attacks by the US coalition, further Houthi attacks on US bases are expected. Despite these attacks, Houthi leader Abdel Malik Al Huti has promised a response, suggesting that the Houthis will not be intimidated and may even attack US aircraft carriers.
Why are the Houthis attacking international cargo ships and threatening freedom of navigation?
After October 7, 2023, the Houthis expressed support for Hamas and made threats against ships heading to Israel. This alignment is not surprising given that the Houthis emulate Hezbollah, which receives military support and training. The attack on international ships serves as a form of protest, disrupting logistics to Israel and allied with Iran, a common enemy of Israel and shared with Hamas.
Saudi Arabia bombed the Houthis for nine years without weakening the organization. Can the US and UK succeed now?
The success and continuation of these attacks remain uncertain. To significantly change the situation, the United States and the United Kingdom would have to send ground troops, risking possible escalation. Even if Iran does not participate directly, it is likely to continue supporting its proxies in Yemen. In addition, there is a risk that Russia will support Iran (in its efforts to support the Houthis) and potentially arm the Houthis against the Western coalition if there is a deployment of troops and an escalation of attacks. The eventual deployment of Western troops to Yemen could trigger a violent regional response, particularly in Iraq and Syria, which could lead to a rapid, unwanted escalation of the war.
