The world of international relations is a complex and ever-changing landscape. On October 27, 1964, Ronald Reagan began his successful political career with a memorable speech in support of the Barry Goldwater campaign. This marked the beginning of his influential voice in the moderate conservative movement of the twentieth century and his championing of Western victory against the Soviet block in the Cold War. Reagan’s critique of a perceived peace was stark: “History will collect in amazement that those who could lose the most were what they did least to avoid it.” This phrase, while spoken decades ago, resonates today with dramatic precision, describing the precarious balance of global politics.
Evolving Alliances and the Shift in European Defense
It seems that Europeans closest to the epicenter of risk, particularly in relation to Russia, best understand the urgent need to increase defense expenditures. The significant shift in philosophy by countries like Sweden and Finland, moving from neutrality to NATO membership, underscores the changing dynamics of global security. This Copernican change indicates that countries which managed to remain neutral during the war now perceive the current risk as infinitely greater. This shift is a clear indicator of how nations are reevaluating their positions in the face of evolving threats.
Personal Insights into Russian Attitudes Towards the West
In 2002, as part of a delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, specifically the Human Rights Commission, I witnessed firsthand the tensions between Russia and the West. Evaluating possible war crimes in Chechnya, we were part of sessions where a Polish deputy’s outrage was palpable, leading to insolent behavior towards a general. The need to remind him of the importance of objectivity and composure was telling. This incident, though minor, highlighted the deep-seated animosity and mistrust between Russia and the West. Russians asserted that they could never be allies of the West, viewing NATO membership as absurd and friendship with the West as a chimera. The sentiment expressed was clear: “The Russians of today, even if we are no longer Soviet, we do not know how to live without the antagonism with the West.”
The West’s Approach to Russia: Past and Present
It’s crucial to acknowledge that the West did not seek to be Russia’s adversary again after the Cold War. Denying the threats from those who proclaim themselves enemies can lead to war and potentially to defeat. The defeat for the West would mean the end of democracies. Historical figures like Reagan understood that the enemy was communism, not Russia. The West attempted to forge a partnership between Russia and NATO, a path some still believe should be pursued. However, one cannot be a friend to those who feel more comfortable being an enemy or adversary.
The Danger of Misinterpreting Putin’s Intentions
There’s a clear warning to those who see Putin as a potential partner or, worse, a champion of Christian Europe. This is a misguided view, given the unfolding events. The war against Georgia, the annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and later the invasion and annexation of Crimea, all demonstrate a strategy of expansion. The West’s response, or lack thereof, has been noted by Russia, emboldening further actions. The downing of MH17 and the slow but inexorable expansion into Donbas with “little green men” are all part of this trajectory.
A Path Forward: The US Peace Plan for Ukraine
The peace plan being designed by the US could include several key points: an immediate ceasefire, presidential elections in Ukraine, the deployment of mainly European interposition troops, discarding Ukraine’s entry into NATO, and an agreement on the exploitation of Ukraine’s strategic resources. This plan, while detailed, raises questions about its implications and whether it rewards the aggressor, potentially encouraging further expansionism in Europe.
Russia’s Aspirations and the Future of European Security
Russia’s goal is to neutralize Ukraine, akin to what was done with Finland, creating a “security space” at its borders. This would lead to new aggressions, with Moldova and the remnants of Georgia being the most likely victims. The progression of hybrid and gray war in these countries, alongside the harassment of the Baltic Republics, Poland, and neighbors of Finland and Norway, indicates a broader strategy. China observes these developments closely, taking note of the responses and resolve of the West.
Analysis of Recent Statements and Their Implications
Recent statements from US officials, including Vice President JD Vance, have sparked controversy. While some statements are indeed worrying, it’s essential to analyze them in detail. The Secretary of Defense’s comment that returning to the 2014 borders is not realistic seems to exclude illegally acquired territories since 2014, including those taken by the “little green men.” This nuances the situation, suggesting that not all statements are errors or slip-ups.
The Importance of Clarity and Moderation in Political Discourse
The extreme pro-Russia right and some media outlets have been quick to declare the “beginning of the end of NATO” based on Vance’s speech. More concerning is the proclamation of the death of the transatlantic relationship by some major media outlets. While Vance’s speech was critical of Europe, it’s also true that not all ideas are respectable, and some ideologies, like Nazism, fascism, and radical Islamism, are indeed dangerous to democracy. However, complaints about wokism, cancellation policies, and the excesses of the radical left are realities that cannot be ignored. The announcement of the “democratic shield” by the EU is worrying and improper for the club of advanced democracies.
In the face of complex global challenges, it’s essential to maintain our perspective and serenity. Outbursts, whether from Trump or European leaders, cannot be met with outbursts. The aspiration for a democratic shield, while problematic, highlights the need for thoughtful and measured responses to the challenges facing the West and Europe. The path forward requires understanding, clarity, and a commitment to democratic values, without which the very foundations of our societies are at risk.