MAGA, act 3. After winning the 2016 presidential election and then losing that of 2020, Donald Trump announced his candidacy for that of 2024 on Tuesday evening. From his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, he accused Joe Biden of being the commander-in-chief of a “nation in decline”. But before dreaming of a return match against his successor, Donald Trump, who is the target of multiple legal investigations, will already have to emerge victorious from a fratricidal Republican primary. With knives sharpened by the poor performance of his foals with midtermsand the emergence of Ron DeSantis as a formidable potential adversary.
“To make America great and glorious again, I am announcing my candidacy for the presidential election this evening,” Donald Trump launched in front of several hundred guests, in a much less overexcited atmosphere than at his MAGA meetings. He was also generally disciplined for most of the 60 minutes of his speech, without mentioning that the 2020 election – or the midterms – had been “stolen” or “rigged”, contrary to his habit.
“On the brink of nuclear war”
Promising an America “back”, Donald Trump painted an idyllic picture of his first term, evoking a country at peace, prosperous and respected on the international scene. Conversely, the former head of state, wearing his traditional red tie, did not have words harsh enough to denounce Joe Biden’s record. A country plunged into violence and crime, where soaring prices are strangling American households, where “millions” of illegal immigrants cross the border with Mexico, he was indignant in front of a row of American flags.
“Joe Biden embodies the failures of the left and the corruption of Washington,” accused the ex-businessman in his pugnacious speech. The Democratic president “is driving us to the brink of nuclear war”, said Donald Trump, assuring that the war in Ukraine “would never have happened” if he were president.
A candidate surrounded by judicial inquiries
Donald Trump is entering the primary race two years before the election, seven months earlier than in 2015, when he was a political novice. Why such a rush? “Because he wants to protect himself from prosecutors,” said lawyer George Conway, a notorious critic of Trump and husband of his ex-adviser Kellyanne Conway, in an editorial.
In fact, even if the parliamentary inquiry committee on the assault on the Capitol should disappear in January with the narrow Republican majority in the House, Donald Trump will be a candidate surrounded by justice. Who is investigating his role in the violence of January 6, 2021, his financial affairs, his management of the White House archives or the pressure exerted on electoral agents.
His candidacy does not prevent the Department of Justice from indicting him. But the political bar to cross to justify prosecution is higher than ever in the face of a candidate who denounces a “persecution” of the authorities and the FBI. Technically, he could even be a candidate if charged or even convicted – only Congress has the power to declare a politician ineligible. He will still have to win a Republican primary that promises to be bloody.
An ad in a “weak position”
When he chose Tuesday’s date, Donald Trump thought he was riding a Republican wave during the midterms, and claiming to be the main architect. But despite record inflation and an unpopular Joe Biden, the conservatives are expected to have only a narrow majority of four or five seats in the House, and have failed to retake the Senate. Worse, the foals of Donald Trump who had made an alleged “stolen” election the heart of their campaign have been rejected in the swing states, in particular in Pennsylvania, Nevada and even Arizona, where Kari Lake has inclined for the post of governor.
At the same time, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, hailed by Rupert Murdoch as “the future” of Republicans, was reelected to a chair. A victory that catapulted him ahead of Donald Trump for the primaries, with the support of 41% of Republicans, against 39% for the former president, according to a YouGov poll.
DeSantis is far from the only one with ambitions. Mike Pence, who publishes his memoirs, and accuses Donald Trump of having “endangered (his) family” during the assault on Capitol Hill, Liz Cheney, the nemesis of the ex-president, the former boss of the CIA Mike Pompeo, former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley or African-American senator from South Carolina, Tim Scott, could also get started. Chris Sununu, the moderate governor of New Hampshire, was the first to attack Donald Trump’s early announcement on Tuesday evening: “I’m not even sure he’s the favorite (after the midterms). He launches from a position of weakness. Be careful not to underestimate Donald Trump. In 2016, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Marco Rubio found out the hard way.