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07:30 am: The EBRD cuts its growth forecast for Ukraine

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has just revised its 2023 GDP forecast for Ukraine. The growth forecast has even been revised sharply downwards to 1% for this year, against 8% in the forecasts published in September, with 3% growth expected in 2024.

In addition to the length of the conflict, which is dragging on, the fact that the Russian army is “bombing civilian infrastructure” in Ukraine has had a major impact on the revision of the forecasts. “In September, there was this optimism that the military efforts of the country were progressing and that the population was adjusting to the situation”, but since “the bombings, the blackouts have made life difficult for people but also for businesses,” argues Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the EBRD.

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