2024 is here; Year that begins with a taste of political uncertainty for Venezuelans and with the desire to finally bring about political change, which goes through several scenarios that must be on the table and that we will develop in the following lines.
There is undoubtedly a majority today that is against the regime Nicolas Maduro and the reason for this is already more than known: people were tired of the Chávez-Maduro governments, which were so disastrous that even their supporters starved and those who survived ran out of breath to use the old saying “Chávez is alive” to proclaim “the fighting continues”. Today they want to put an end to this nightmare too.
On the other hand, in 2023 the opposition had a successful primary and the regime a consultative referendum on Essequibo with low turnout, only they played on the offensive and saw the results they had left in the voters' savings account to cover up conflict actions with Guyana , which happened on October 22nd with the primary and the election of the unity candidate.
We see that Maduro will be the PSUV candidate and no matter how hard he tries to make speculative comments, the company that brings them together is interested in maintaining this. It is the only thing that unites them. The final card they would play in an extreme case would be to postpone the electoral process until 2025 only if they fail to keep the candidate disqualified. Maria Corina Machadobecause they know that otherwise they would suffer overwhelming defeat.
The card that they will try to play so far, or that is already being played, is not to put María Corina in a position to convince and keep the opposition leaders in check so that they deprive her of the political word, but this step could go wrong, because that doesn't mean depriving her of the voices and positive acceptance she enjoys.
Madurismo, in this scenario, will perfect the strategy that they used in the state of Barinas in the 2021 regional elections, when they did not recognize the victory of Freddy Superlano and they called another election and explicitly disqualified anyone who wanted a chance of winning, until Sergio Garrido emerged as the last option, with a low level of knowledge and nothing significant in his political history, they gave him a nod and entered the end Garrido He achieved a victory in Unidad with a difference of over 40,000 votes to the candidate, Chávez's son-in-law, who had the entire government structure.
Now they will not underestimate the opposition, and even the Garridos, to name the candidates in a last-minute way, will be put to the test. However, I am optimistic that in this scenario and whoever the candidate is and wears the jacket of unity and the support of candidate Machado will defeat Maduro.
The ideal scenario, the democratic one, the normal one that we all want, is that María Corina is not disqualified, that she runs under moderate conditions, that she wins, is sworn in and begins a transition in Venezuela.
For the latter to come about, it is not enough to have the votes, because they already have the electoral unity that, if carried out, gives good results despite the divisions of the opposition and despite the problems and conflicts in the world, the countries with clear interests in Venezuela They will try to be vigilant, but not like in 2019.
Therefore, citizens face the challenge of trusting the political leadership, which enjoys greater credibility, and understanding that the strategy to win does not necessarily have to be announced since the opponent should not know it and there are intruders. Like dominoes: a game won is not blocked and today Maduro is the one who loses. He would only win if he postponed the process until the following year.