USA. will include Russia in its blacklist?

The current crisis between Russia Y USA it threatens to turn into a conflict of broader proportions and an international scope not yet seen until now.

The current policy in the United States maintains differences regarding the possible designation of Russia as a country that promotes terrorism on an international scale. While in a patriotic and electoralist tone the Legislative Power directly assumes this proposal, the Executive Power tries to avoid it, pointing instead to the strong political and economic consequences of an appointment of these characteristics.

For its part, Moscow has already warned that any initiative in this direction would imply a complete rupture of relations with the United States.

Currently, only four countries are officially labeled by the United States as state sponsors of terrorism: Cuba, North Korea, Iran, and Syria. The previous list had included Sudan, Libya and Iraq.

Within Congress the bill has broad bipartisan support and there are strong indications that it will be approved in September. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, He even gave his endorsement to the proposal that, in his opinion, “had already taken too long.” If Parliament approves it, it would be up to Joe Biden sanction the law.

Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State, who should carry out the designation against Russia, has downplayed the problem by suggesting that many of the planned sanctions would duplicate measures that already exist. Thus, the US government would be more aware of the serious global consequences of a designation of this nature.

Proponents of the initiative say that since the invasion began on February 24, the Russian military’s “war crimes” in Ukraine have been widely documented and are currently the subject of a series of ongoing international investigations. But the resolution goes back in time and refers to “Russian terrorism” in Chechnya, Syria and Georgia, all the way to the current conflict in Ukraine.

The inclusion of Russia in the blacklist would have important consequences. To begin with, it would involve the seizure of all Russian property in territory that the United States can access. Russian capital abroad could be frozen, and even expropriated. If the designation were adopted by many countries, Russia would lose its property rights abroad and its economic interaction would be maximally weakened.

Similarly, additional restrictions would be introduced on US economic interaction with Russia, as well as pressure would be put on non-governmental organizations and international companies that still do business in Russia, which would be affected in their “good conduct”. name” for trading with a “terrorist state”. Finally, relatives or victims of “terrorist attacks” could sue Russia in US courts.

Before it is approved in the United States, other governments have already rushed to sanction similar designations, which would show that there is an international strategy underway to reinforce the isolation of Russia. Thus, in Latvia and recently in Lithuania, anti-Russian laws were passed, while in various countries the ban on the granting of tourist visas for Russian citizens throughout the EU is being discussed.

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In the event that this designation materializes, the effects for Russia would be very harsh, and more serious than all the economic sanctions applied so far.

The first thing that can be stated is that, without a doubt, Moscow You will find this designation deeply insulting, especially since considers itself to be at the forefront of the fight against terrorism.

However, even more worrying would be the possibility that the president Vladimir Putin You can consider this movement as an open call for a change in the government of Russia, particularly, since one of the ways to reverse this designation implies an alteration in the political direction of the indicated country.

On the other hand, including Russia in this category would also hamper international cooperation in the management of global crises and conflicts, fully impacting any design of multilateral policy. At the same time, a question mark would arise regarding the dynamics of the United Nations Security Council, currently seriously affected by the deterioration of relations between the great powers.

Similarly, such a move would likely weaken the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a body that has been instrumental in containing the conflicts that erupted after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Other processes of dialogue and pacification in what was Soviet territory would also be affected, such as the cases of the talks currently underway on Moldova, Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, they would hit hard those complex UN-led processes in open conflicts in Libya, Syria and Mali. And of course, it would aggravate the strategic negotiations around uranium enrichment in Iran.

Beyond the political effects, the classification of Russia as a promoter of terrorism would aggravate the fragility of the current global economic system.

Different analyzes warn that Russia’s main partners in the Eurasian Economic Union (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) are already showing their concern about the possibility that the bloc will finally collapse. The crisis is even expected to also impact some members of the European Union whose economies have strong links with Russia, thus transforming their crisis into an international debacle.

Finally, and in case this initiative finally advances, it is clear that Latin America will not be able to remain on the sidelines. Indeed, the economic and political ties built with Moscow in recent years will demand clear international positions on the part of the governments of the region, while the diplomatic and economic pressures operated from Washington will deepen with the clear objective of adding alignments to this controversial initiative.

Daniel Kersffeld has a doctorate in Latin American Studies (UNAM). Researcher CONICET-Torcuato di Tella University.

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