Since his return to power on January 20, Donald Trump has demonstrated a willingness to implement a radical policy shift compared to the previous administration. This is something the Republican has already shown with the announcement of the United States’ withdrawal from entities like the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement. In recent weeks, some members of his team have also expressed support for the idea that Washington should leave NATO, in an international context marked by tensions with countries like Russia and amidst an unprecedented global arms race.
It was Elon Musk, the owner of SpaceX and the president’s right-hand man, who wrote the incendiary words “I agree” on his X profile in response to a post by a far-right activist claiming it was time for the US to “leave NATO and the United Nations”. This tweet generated significant controversy and rekindled the debate about the United States’ relationship with the Atlantic Alliance.
This isn’t the first time the president of one of NATO’s founding countries has attacked the Atlantic Alliance. In fact, tensions between Washington and the rest of the member countries have increased, especially since Trump began expressing doubts about the need for the United States to continue allocating part of its budget to NATO or his refusal to allow Ukraine to join.
For now, the US withdrawing from NATO doesn’t seem to be a priority for the new administration; however, the volatility and unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy make it difficult to completely rule out the possibility. In this context, it’s relevant to ask: could the United States potentially leave NATO?
Can the US leave NATO?
The truth is that, to date, there are no precedents for any country leaving the North Atlantic Treaty Organization since its founding in 1949. Over the decades, the number of NATO members has only grown, with the inclusion of several European countries and, more recently, former Soviet republics. However, the NATO founding treaty includes a withdrawal clause, which means that, in theory, a country could leave the organization if it so desires, although this procedure is subject to a series of legal and political conditions.
This clause is found in Article 13 of the treaty signed in Washington D.C. on April 4, 1949. The article states that for any of the parties to cease being a member of the Atlantic Alliance, “twenty years of the Treaty’s validity” must have passed. Furthermore, the exit would become official “one year after notification of denunciation has been submitted to the Government of the United States of America, which will inform the Governments of the other Parties of the deposit of each withdrawal notification”.
In other words, the date from which member countries could have left NATO is 1969, so this condition has already been met. Although this article allows any member country to leave, the internal procedure for requesting this can vary significantly from one nation to another. As Reuters points out, Donald Trump couldn’t unilaterally withdraw the United States from NATO because the country has legislation that prohibits such action without explicit congressional authorization or the approval of two-thirds of the Senate.
The implications of such a move would be far-reaching, with potential consequences for global security and stability. As the international community continues to navigate the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape, one thing is clear: the United States’ relationship with NATO remains a critical component of its foreign policy, and any changes to this dynamic will be closely watched by nations around the world.
In conclusion, while the US leaving NATO might seem like a remote possibility, understanding the complexities of the treaty and the legal framework that governs it is essential for grasping the nuances of this situation. The path ahead will likely be shaped by a combination of diplomatic efforts, political will, and the evolving nature of international relations, making it imperative to stay informed and engaged with the developments as they unfold.
Some key considerations include:
- The historical context of NATO’s founding and its evolution over the years.
- The legal framework that governs membership and withdrawal from the alliance.
- The political and diplomatic implications of a potential US withdrawal.
- The potential consequences for global security and stability.
As the situation continues to unfold, these factors will play a significant role in shaping the future of the United States’ relationship with NATO and, by extension, the broader international community.