Argentina is pledging its future this Sunday in the primary elections that are sure to affect next October’s general election. At least 15 fronts and coalitions have submitted their candidacy for the elections, with up to 27 different presidential formulas. But the limelight focuses on, almost blindingly, four main figures: current Economy Minister Sergio Massa, a candidate for Peronism; Horacio Rodriguez Larreta And Patricia Bullrichjeopardizing the leadership of the opposition Together for Change (JxC); and libertarian Javier Milei, a new far-right phenomenon who will measure his electoral success. Just landed in Argentina, said the regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), Daniel Zovatodiscuss all the keys in conversation with LA RAZÓN.
What is at stake in PASO?
Next Sunday, August 13th, the open, simultaneous and compulsory primary elections (PASO), in force since 2011, will take place, in which each coalition or party will choose the candidates for the general elections (presidential and parliamentary) on August 22nd by popular vote . October. To get into this round, they must exceed a threshold of 1.5%. On this occasion 15 fronts/coalitions with 27 presidential formulas are presented, but the focus is on three: the Peronist ruling party under Economy Minister Sergio Massa (moderate) vs. the social leader Juan Grabois (radical), the Juntos opposition Change with two very different options , personified by the head of government of the city of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (dove) and former security minister Patricia Bullrich (hawk), and a new third way with the extreme right of Javier Milei goes into a single list.
The PASO, created with the aim of improving the parties’ internal mechanisms of democracy – making them more participatory and transparent – represents the first major national survey to give a first impression of alignment with voter preferences. Although two dates should alert us that this is not the crucial choice. First, that in all elections since 2011 in PASO there has been a lower turnout than in general elections. Second, there may be realignments in the following two months of campaigning, as was the case in 2015 or 2019 when Macri significantly increased his vote count between PASO and generals.
What are the issues that Argentines deal with?
According to the University of San Andrés Political Satisfaction and Public Opinion survey carried out at the end of May, the three issues that concern citizens most are inflation, devaluation and the economic situation in general (51%), growing insecurity and crime (36% ) and corruption (35%). 89% of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs and 81% disapprove of the leadership of current President Alberto Fernández.
The fiercest struggle is taking place within the opposition coalition Together for Change (JxC). Between Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich. Who starts with an advantage?
In a weighting of the vast number of existing polls, Patricia Bullrich would lead. However, over the past two or three weeks, it seems Larreta has refined his strategy and narrowed the initial differences. On average for the last 10 published surveys, Bullrich would come up with 21.5% and Larreta with 15.4%.
The row between the two candidates was fierce and revealed two very different forms of change – despite being under the auspices of former President Macri. Larreta proposes a gradual change, trying to include Peronist allies and other parties, while Bullrich proposes a more radical and rapid change on economic, social and security issues. Larreta has formed a coalition with the leaders of the Radical Party, or Lilita Carrió, which would give her an advantage in terms of territorial structure. Bullrich has developed more of an opinion campaign, which is supported by wayward radicals and cultural workers. The question remains whether the candidate, once defined, will be able to contain the votes of the vanquished, because in the event of Larreta’s victory, many polls point to a possible drift of the ex-minister’s voters towards the candidate Milei . Instead, Bullrich would manage to retain a higher share of the vote, although it would be difficult for him to advance beyond those party lines into the first round.
Javier Milei’s right-wing extremist party La Libertad Avanza is following them in their voting intentions. What is your balance between training and your manager? What can we expect from him?
Javier Milei is a libertarian economist who proposes a neoliberal capitalist model, that is, everything should be solved according to free market logic and the state must be reduced to its minimum as it suppresses these freedoms and social efficiency. He rose to prominence as a controversial commentator on television shows and later founded a movement called La Libertad Avanza. He is currently a national deputy after surprising the city of Buenos Aires with 17% of the vote in 2021.
This is a national case that expresses a global phenomenon of the “new right” which is anti-establishment and anti-elite (he calls it anti-caste), populist and personalist. In the period before the lists were defined (June 24), Milei topped several polls, but after several controversial statements – including his support for the creation of an organ market, free carrying of arms – and allegations of corruption against the lists within his movement affected his popularity and he began to decline. Currently, his propositions that get the most attention from the people are dollarization, privatization, a strong hand (like Bukele), and the abolition of subsidies and social plans. PASO determines your electoral base and your ability to qualify for the second round on October 22nd. In the last 10 polls, he has a 17.4% voting intent.
What happens in the space of Peronism? Economy Minister Sergio Massa is seen as the bloc’s main candidate, despite the presence of Juan Grabois. Is governance taking its toll?
In Pan-Peronism, as the lists closed, it became clear that the undisputed leader is Cristina Kirchner, having finished belittling several of the candidates launched – De Pedro and Scioli – and pushing through Sergio Massa as candidate. In addition, Massa is an ally who inspires more suspicion in the traditional Kirchnerist base than current President Alberto Fernández or others. Therefore, Grabois’ candidacy makes sense to contain the militant, who favors a radical left agenda. Massa is an experienced, moderate and pragmatic politician whom Cristina interpreted a year ago as the only one capable of saving the economy and now making the movement viable in the presidential elections.
For the time being, the polls appear to be proving him right, as the Union por la Patria coalition has improved its voting intentions by 8% in a month. According to the polls, Massa should be the candidate with the most votes at the end of Sunday night and not only prevail against Grabois in the primary, but also against all other competitors. Despite the critical economic and social situation in the country, the unified Peronism has a solid electoral base of almost 30% and Massa has managed to establish the image of an assault pilot. So far, of course, with very bad results.