The resistance in United States Congress to approve a budget item of $60,000 million in financial aid Ukraine and Europe's reluctance to increase its strength Defense industrial base The continued delivery of aid to Kiev creates serious difficulties for Zelensky's troops, who are increasingly turning to the Explosive drones due to lack of artillery. The Pentagon asserts that it cannot provide more military equipment without emptying its own arsenal – a similar message to that of European governments. Some observers even put a date on it. Former colonel and military analyst in the French Navy Peer de Jong has stated that in about a month the ammunition depots in Ukraine will be emptied.
This message was supported by Vladimir Putin, who stated on January 1 that “the Ukrainian army uses 5,000 or even 6,000 155-caliber shells per day, while the United States produces 14,000 per month.” Their conclusion is that the Western weapons , who arrive in Ukraine, will be exhausted in a short time.
This situation has worsened in recent weeks, but various reports claim that Western military aid deliveries have declined sharply since June 2023. NATO announced in October that Western military powers were running out of ammunition for Ukraine to defend itself. That's what the Wall Street Journal claimed last week For every five or six missiles Russia fires, the Ukrainians only manage to counterattack once or twice. The Admiral Robert BauerNATO's top military official, summed it up perfectly when he warned: “The bottom of the barrel is now visible.”
The problem is not just that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, but also that Russia has a huge defense industrial base that has been put on a war footing by staggering oil revenues. In 2023, Putin himself said that the Russian military industry is now more powerful and is already producing three times more ammunition than before. The Kremlin tenant also announced that his country would begin manufacturing and modernizing more than 1,600 tanks, a number well above the 400 that Ukraine wants to receive from the West. Another spearhead that Russia has threatened is the “massive” production of Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, strategic weapons that, according to Russia, render the US missile defense shield useless.
In addition, Moscow has turned to North Korea to address the firepower deficit by procuring ballistic missiles and a million artillery shells from the hermit regime. Iran has purchased thousands of drones and larger missiles They may not be as capable or effective as their Western counterparts, but they are available.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has a small arms industry and is highly vulnerable to Russian missile attacks. Retired officer Peer de Jong is quoted by Russian media as believing that both Putin's and Ukrainian armies are making efforts to stabilize the front and carry out strategic attacks, but this requires the right skills. De Jong believes so Moscow is waging a “war of attrition” aimed at “wearing down” the morale and resources of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Nobody doubts that The Russian invasion of Ukraine surprised NATO members and European allies and with an industry designed for peacetime and with visible bottlenecks in the production of war material. Since the beginning of the war, major defense companies have increased their production with the support of national governments. The European Commission has drawn up a plan to provide Ukraine with 1 billion euros worth of ammunition from its current stocks and set up another fund to jointly buy 1 billion euros worth of ammunition to help the invaded country help. However, there was no agreement on whether purchasing must be made exclusively from European companies or from countries outside the EU.
At the beginning of last year The West promised Ukraine that it would provide one million artillery shells by March 2024, but everything indicates that this promise will not be fulfilled. There is no lack of political commitment, say the European law firms. The problem is that there are times in weapons production that do not coincide with those of war. President Zelensky said this in a recent interview with CBS The Ukrainian and Russian armies each fire about 40,000 artillery shells per day on average. A year ago, the New York Times reported that the Ukrainian army was currently using about 90,000 projectiles per month, virtually twice as many as the United States and the entire European Union combined could produce.
In the meantime, Germany refuses to send its Taurus missiles and the F-16s from the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark will not arrive as planned at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, Russia is already firing North Korean KN23 missiles. Putin rubs his hands.