The situation in Ukraine has continued to unfold, even as a series of high-profile meetings and statements from world leaders have grabbed the headlines. Although the Russian offensive has slowed down since its peak in December, with lower pressure overall, Russian forces have still managed to make some limited gains in the eastern Donetsk region. For instance, they’ve captured a town in Zaporiyia near Kurajove and achieved marginal advances north of Velka Novosilka, according to the Deepstate analytical platform. However, it’s worth noting that Russia’s activity in the Pokrovsk area has decreased, as the invading army is finding it challenging to maintain the same level of pressure across multiple areas of the front.
As Deepstate pointed out, “The enemy has problems with logistics and resources, both human and technical, near Pokrovsk.” This has led to Russian infantry increasingly relying on civil vehicles or even mules in their assaults, due to the high losses inflicted by Ukraine. The need to recover lost land before Ukraine’s successful counterattacks, such as the one near Uspenivka, has also taken a toll on Russian forces. Despite this, Russia continues to send small assault groups in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian defenders, with President Vladimir Putin remaining committed to continuing the war and pushing Ukraine to surrender, according to analysts.
The question remains whether Ukraine could maintain its current level of resistance to Russian attacks without US military support. The actions and words of Donald Trump have been increasingly aligned with Russia’s position, and his conversations have been somewhat opaque, causing concern for both Ukraine and Europe. This was evident on Monday when the US voted against a resolution presented by Ukraine and its European partners at the UN General Assembly, which condemned Russia’s invasion and called for the unconditional withdrawal of its troops from occupied territories. The resolution was approved with 93 votes in favor and 65 abstentions, including Iran and China. However, the US introduced its own resolution, which did not blame Russia and emphasized the need to end the war in general terms. The UN General Assembly introduced amendments to describe the conflict as a Russian invasion, leading the US to refrain from voting. The US ultimately got its original resolution approved by the Security Council, with 10 countries in favor and 5 abstentions, resulting in a diplomatic skirmish that was 1 to 2 in favor of Ukraine.
For now, American weapons continue to arrive in Ukraine, but future deliveries are uncertain, given the current political landscape. If US support were to cease, Ukraine would face significant challenges in replacing American supplies, particularly in areas like air defense, long-range artillery, and missiles. Estimates suggest that, without Washington’s help, Ukraine could maintain its current level of resistance for approximately half a year or until the summer. Therefore, both Europe and Ukraine must ramp up their military production quickly, according to analysts. Ukraine has already made significant strides in this regard, producing over 150 artillery pieces and more than 1.3 million drones – more than all NATO countries combined – in 2024. The country is also working on new types of drones and their hybrids with missiles, while developing its own advanced air defense systems, as announced by President Zelenskyy. Currently, Ukrainian military production covers about 40% of its needs, but this is expected to rise to 50% in 2025.