The Russian army has been unable to expel Ukrainian forces from their territory, six months after Ukraine’s surprise offensive in Kursk. Recently, Ukraine launched another counterattack to the east of Sudzha, a key city under its control, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Although Moscow claims to have prevented Ukraine’s progress to the Ulanak village, Russian military bloggers report that Ukraine managed to capture at least one town, Checkasskaya Konopelka. The Ukrainian government has not commented on the news, but considers its ongoing offensive, launched last August, a significant success that could play a crucial role in potential negotiations with Russia.
According to military analysts, Ukraine currently controls up to 600 square kilometers in the Russian region, using dynamic defense to neutralize the enemy’s numerical superiority and bombing tactics. “In some cases, our forces have deliberately retreated from some villages to lure Russian forces into a trap and maximize their losses,” explains Oleksi Melnik, a military analyst at the Razumkov center. Since August, Russia has increased its troop presence in the area from approximately 10,000 to 60,000, diverting significant forces from other parts of the front line in Ukraine. Additionally, 40,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured in the area, including 4,000 North Korean allies.
Some 900 Russian soldiers have been captured, with many exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers in Russian captivity, bringing relief to thousands of Ukrainian families. The Ukrainian army believes that the Kursk operation has prevented Russia from launching a new offensive in the adjacent regions of Sumi and Jarkiv. As President Zelenski stated, “We have brought the war back home, to Russia. That is where they really feel what war is.” The Ukrainians think that the setback in Kursk has dealt a significant blow to Vladimir Putin’s reputation, both within and outside Russia, demonstrating his inability to protect his country’s borders and citizens.
The area under Ukrainian control has decreased since August and is now half of what it was at the height of the offensive. However, Russia’s progress in Kursk has slowed down, as North Korean soldiers have shown little effectiveness on the battlefield and have retreated due to high losses, according to Kyiv. “What matters is not the extent of the territory that Ukraine controls in Kursk, but its mere presence there,” says Melnik. Ukraine hopes to use this presence to influence the areas occupied by Russia in Ukraine during potential negotiations.
The growing cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a cause for concern, as North Korea has supplied Russia with millions of artillery projectiles, helping Russia maintain pressure on the front line. President Zelenski warns that Putin is “teaching” North Korea how to fight a modern war, posing a threat to all, including East Asian countries. “I am grateful to all our partners who understand how important it is to stop Russia now, so that we do not have to fight again in a few years,” he said.
According to Ukrainian army sources, Russian pressure on the front line has decreased significantly in the last week, with the average daily number of assaults falling below 100, compared to a peak of 250 in December. Nevertheless, Russia continues its attempts to capture more territory near Pokrovsk, Kurajove, and Lyman in Donetsk, and Kupiansk in Jarkiv.