What impact do Trump’s comments have on NATO and what could happen if he wins the presidential election in November?
It’s hard to predict what Trump will actually do. He always has strong instincts but rarely strong convictions. But you can count on one thing: it will pressure all NATO members to fulfill their promise to spend 2% of GDP on defense. Their attitude toward NATO is entirely transactional: if it doesn’t get paid, the US won’t participate. He is serious. I have to say that most American conservatives consider NATO to be the most successful military alliance in history. They will fight to preserve it. But Trump’s main supporters are isolationists and don’t care about NATO.
Does Trump’s suggestion that the US he leads would not defend an ally that invests little in defense cast doubt on Article 5?
After Trump’s shocking comment, many traditional Republicans were quick to proclaim, “Oh, that Trump!” Don’t take what he says literally. But history shows that what he says should be taken seriously and often literally. I assume that the statement reflected his desire to galvanize European governments as part of the campaign to increase their defense spending.
If Trump were elected, would the US have difficulty leaving NATO?
Under US law, formal withdrawal from NATO requires a two-thirds majority of the Senate. (The Biden administration approved this law.) If Trump wins in a landslide, it’s possible he could get the Senate’s votes to do so, but that’s unlikely. But consider this: By cutting funding, withdrawing troops, and refusing to cooperate, Trump could effectively withdraw the United States while still technically remaining a member of the United States.
Do you think Trump’s return to the White House would mean the end of aid to Ukraine, the collapse of NATO and the weakening of American leadership?
Trump has repeatedly stated that he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. As? The writings of possible Trump administration figures show what they have in mind: negotiating a ceasefire and a new border, similar to what happened in Korea. To convince Putin, he would threaten to give Ukraine significantly more powerful and far-reaching weapons. To convince Ukrainians, he would threaten to cut military and economic aid. He would be against admitting Ukraine into NATO, so it is unclear whether such an agreement would last long against Putin. But it would end the war in the short term.
Is there really a fear that Trump could reimpose higher trade tariffs on EU products entering the US?
Trump is very serious about imposing huge tariffs on goods the US imports from China. Talk about a 60% rate. I am skeptical about the political feasibility of such astronomical scales, as many large industries rely on cheap Chinese goods and would severely impact middle-class pocketbooks. But note: No American politician, including Trump, is talking about high tariffs on European goods. According to economic theory, a new era of protectionism will harm the EU and Spain. That’s probably what will happen if Trump is elected. But if you want to worry about something big, worry about what will happen to the global economy if the Chinese invade Taiwan. No high-end computer chips: That’s bad news! Or let’s say the US Navy stops protecting shipping around the world, for example in the Red Sea. That could happen under Trump.