New Hampshire is the state where Nikki Haley, Trump's only real rival remaining this Tuesday after the withdrawal of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, had the best prospects. But if Haley can't win in this relatively moderate state, where she had the governor's enthusiastic support and independent voters had the opportunity to participate in the Republican primary, it will be harder for her to do so in the rest of the country .
Candidates who withdrew from the race continued to appear on the Republican ballot, including former Vice President Mike Pence; Senator Tim Scott; investor Vivek Ramaswamy; former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. They barely received votes.
The former U.N. ambassador and former South Carolina governor has maintained so far that she won't give up even if she loses in New Hampshire, but that was the obligatory message on the campaign trail. Given this Tuesday's result, he will have to make decisions. The next appointment will be in Nevada, where it will not be registered at the caucuses, the meetings that elect delegates to the Republican convention, but at the primaries, the ballot boxes, in that state, which have not been approved by the party. Then comes South Carolina, Haley's home state, but where Trump is leading the polls and has the support of the party apparatus and the vast majority of his local leaders.
Both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley will appear before their supporters tonight to assess their results.
If these days' campaign events are any indication, Trump's victory in New Hampshire could be imminent. He has held his rallies in sports centers and theaters with much greater capacity than in the halls of institutes, schools, restaurants and hotels that Haley chose. After hours of waiting in the cold and snow, supporters crowded the places where Trump spoke.
This Tuesday, the presence of Trumpists was also more noticeable in the polling stations. Michael Guglielmo, 61, defended from the doors of a polling station in Concord, the state capital, that “Trump is the only legitimate candidate who represents the people.” “He says what he does, he does what he says. Do not lie. He kept his promises. We had peace through strength. We didn't have any wars. We had a great economy, black jobs, Hispanic jobs, and business districts. He was a businessman. And maybe he didn't have the best decency, but his policies were spot on. That’s why I prefer bad tweets and good policies,” said Guglielmo, a carpenter.
Nearby, near the state legislature, an information board reminds us of the importance New Hampshire citizens place on the primary election. Since 1920 they have been celebrated there like nowhere else. The tourist sign states that New Hampshire voters have “regularly favored whichever candidate ultimately reaches the Oval Office.”
Trump is the charismatic leader around whom these primaries have revolved, and his presence is on track to determine the November 5 presidential election against current President Joe Biden, a repeat of the 2020 presidential election. The majority of his supporters, like Dylan Quatrucci, a 26-year-old student, claims that the 2020 elections were rigged and that their allegations amount to election interference in this year's elections: “They continue to attack our democracy while pretending to defend democracy. Which is a little ridiculous.”
Quatrucci says there are “a lot of reasons” why he supports Trump. “I would say the main reason is freedom of speech, which I think is under threat in the United States today,” he claims. “It will rebuild the best economy ever. Building our border wall will keep us safe at home and abroad. And he's going to stop the importation of all drugs across the southern border because that's a big problem for the people of New Hampshire. “A lot of people here know someone who died from the drug epidemic,” he adds.
He is contradicted by a 57-year-old woman who prefers not to give her name and supports Nikki Haley. “I think it's time for a change. I like Trump, but Trump and Biden are too old and I think Nikki Haley has a better chance of winning the November general election. We need a new generation. I also think it’s time to have a woman as president,” she added. The electability thesis is one of the theses that the Republican candidate has used most often, the idea that the chaos and scandals that accompany Trump can turn off moderate and independent voters and lead to a defeat for their party, like the bad elections prove results in 2018, 2020 and 2022.
Exit polls this Tuesday showed Trump's dominance among voters registered as Republicans is overwhelming, while Haley makes room only among those who do not indicate their party preference and are classified as independents. That could support the theory that voters might turn their backs on Trump when push comes to shove, namely in the Nov. 5 election against Biden. Just as there was a widespread impression a little over a year ago, after the general elections in November 2022, that Trump could not win the presidential election, he is classified as the favorite in recent surveys. That partly explains why the primaries went so clearly in her favor and alternatives like DeSantis fell by the wayside.
The Democratic primaries also took place this Tuesday. For them, Joe Biden was the undisputed favorite. The review was somewhat complicated by the fact that Biden was not on the ballot due to a dispute within the Democratic Party. Those who wanted to vote for him had to write their names by hand and that cannot be read by machines. The initial counting data showed an overwhelming dominance of handwritten ballots. While we wait to digest them, it appears to be an indication that Biden had no trouble prevailing against Congressman Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson, his two main rivals.
“I’m here to show my support for Joe Biden and encourage my friends and neighbors to vote for him,” said Colin Van Ostern, a 44-year-old technology executive and prominent Democratic activist. “He is not on the ballot because of a political dispute within the party, but I will not let the party bureaucrats decide who I vote for, whether I vote for him or not. Joe Biden is the only person who has defeated Donald Trump and will do it again. “He also advocates for things that are very important to me, like an economy that works for everyone, not just those at the top, and fundamental rights like the right to abortion, which is currently under severe attack in this country.”