More than five centuries ago, the prophet Nostradamus predicted that in the year 2024 “A red enemy” would spread panic across the “great ocean.”: Just today The Economist published an article related to the numerous conflicts that are changing the ocean in the main dispute area for 2024. Chinese warships sailing dangerously close to Taiwan, and even if the Houthis in Yemen are not a “red enemy” – despite the scarlet motifs of its flag– This Yemeni guerrilla group is increasing tensions in a region that has already been heating up since last October.
Conflict at the “Door of Tears”
Although in Europe There are few people who know how to accurately determine the location of Bab al-Mandeb Street – a narrow “twin” of the Suez Canal that connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean – maritime traffic every day If this step is of great importance in world trade, Well, as stated the International Maritime Organization, about a quarter of global maritime trade crosses this route that connects Europe with the Asian continent. From the Mediterranean, a merchant ship can access the Red Sea through the Suez Canal, and reach the Indian Ocean by sailing along a 20-mile strip that separates the south of the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa.
The “Gate of Tears” – this is the translation from Arabic – it is crucial to maintain the smooth functioning of international trade, although it is located in a geopolitical environment always surrounded by conflict: Djibouti and Eritrea welcome Mandeb ships from the African side and the Houthi guerrillas in Yemen for a few weeks, They carry out missile and drone attacks on all ships connected to Israel: With these incursions, the Houthis have become a new relevant actor in the conflict between Hamas and Israel, in the sphere of influence of other countries of the “Shiite resistance axis” such as Lebanon, Syria and Iran.
Territory in permanent conflict
The professor of international relations at the European University, José María Peredo, does not believe that the Houthi attacks represent a regionalization of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but the continuation of a long open front, which, in his opinion, entails the main problem in the Middle East: the confrontation between various armed groups of a political, ethnic or religious nature in the region, like Hamas, Hezbollah or the Islamic State. Peredo believes that this conflict is disrupting the relative stability in the region which was achieved after the end of the wars in Syria and Iraq.
Specifically, the Houthis are an armed political-religious group that, like a third of the population of their home country Yemen, adhere to Shiite Islam. This Persian Gulf state, considered the poorest in the entire Middle East, is on a “path of historical division,” according to Peredo, indicating that the country was split in two – North Yemen and South Yemen between 1962 and 1990. The professor states that although this division was linked to the alignments of the Cold WarYemen, like other countries in the region, is actually a territory characterized by political and social instability.
The Houthis: a powerful guerrilla in Yemen
With the country's reunification in 1990, the influence of neighboring Saudi Arabia, a country with a Wahhabi Sunni Muslim majority, increased. began to increase significantly, especially under the leadership of President Ali Abdalá Salé, who has been accused of corruption on several occasions. Since the 90s there has been a group led by Hussein Badreddin al Houti – who gave their name to the “Houthis” – revolted against the country's government and took part in numerous conflicts and guerrilla fights against the state.
The Houthis gradually managed to take over a large part of the country: 2015 The guerrillas captured the capital Sanaa and sent President Al-Hadi into exile. who had to leave the country. As The World Order points out, the Houthis are They have no clear political projectand its chaotic leadership is in the hands of guerrillas and religious figures.
Iran – another Shiite country – supports and finances this group, which faces a powerful coalition: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates They support the Yemeni government and confront the Houthis in a conflict that has claimed nearly 377,000 lives, according to the UN and a humanitarian crisis affecting 14 of the country's 28 million residents. After the conflict broke out in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis They decided to side with Hamas – another Shiite group – and exploit their positions on the Red Sea coast to attack ships passing through the Mandeb Strait, thereby increasing pressure on the Hebrew land to end its campaign in the Palestinian territories.
World trade is threatened
Major shipping companies such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended their traffic through the canal, already the scene of 26 attacks by the armed group that controls Yemen's capital and a large part of this Arab country, devastated for decades by a bloody war between the government and Shiite Houthi guerrillas, who today pose “a serious threat to international trade and maritime security,” as noted a few days ago the United Nations Security Council.
The consequences of this canal blockage are already evident from an economic perspective: the logistical costs of transporting goods between Europe and China has increased by 25%as many ships choose to circumnavigate the entire African continent to travel between the East and West of the world, Or use the train to transport your goods.
However, analysts' biggest fear has not yet come true: the price of oil has not skyrocketed, although the price of a barrel has risen 4% in the last few days: About 4.5 million barrels of oil were produced from the Persian Gulf They come through Al Mandeb every day, and the region's instability has caused oil exports from the United States to skyrocket by 35%. It is still too early to assess the economic consequences of this conflict, which The Economist has defined as “a new Suez crisis”, following the confrontation over this move that united several Western countries. against Nasser's Egypt in 1956.
International response: “Guardians of Prosperity”
Last December, after the Houthis' first attacks, The United States announced the formation of an international coalition to protect shipping on this route. baptized as “Guardians of Prosperity.” Countries as diverse as United States, United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, Greece, Netherlands, Norway and Seychelles.
Although Spain was invited to participate, The defense rejected the offer. However, Peredo confirms Spain's role in the defense of shipping and recalls our country's role in Operation Atalanta, which protects the waters of the Horn of Africa plagued by piracy of Somali origin.
So far, the actions have been led by the US Navy The Defense Ministry said on January 4 that they limited themselves to intercepting missiles and Houthi attacks that, thanks “Guardians of Prosperity”19 drones, missiles and torpedoes were intercepted 1,500 merchant ships could sail through the waters of the pass without any problem. However, in the early hours of Friday, both the United Kingdom and the United States decided to launch the offensive against the Houthis, striking 60 of the armed group's logistical targets and striking 16 locations of Houthi fighters in enclaves in the country such as: Hodeidah, Dhamar, Bani or Abbs airfields.
Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, explains: ““The UK will defend freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade.”, and Joe Biden claims that the attacks were “to protect our people and the free flow of international trade.” Dylan White, NATO's acting spokesman, has expressed the Atlantic Alliance's support for the operation, which has been counted on with logistical support from Canada, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark. “These attacks were defensive and targeted to preserve freedom of navigation on one of the world's most important waterways“said the NATO representative.
“Worse than Vietnam”
Mohammed al-Bukhaticurrent Houthis leader claims US and UK 'committed'the greatest madness in its history“, has announced retaliatory measures and warned that the US intervention will end “worsely”. than in Vietnam or Afghanistan. Other countries like Iran, Türkiye or Russia have condemned the attack ChinaAs usual, he called for calm.
However, Professor José María Peredo does not fear that these interventions will lead to an escalation of the conflict, since, in his opinion, they are a “very concrete response” to the Houthi attack. which is more part of the fight against piracy in the Horn of Africa than in the characteristics that defined American intervention in countries like Iraq or Syria.