Despite the fact that the bitcoin (BTC) rate has been rejected for the time being at the 200-week moving average (MA), there are still analysts who see it somewhat sunny. According to Dutch analyst PlanB, the price is currently in an “accumulation phase,” a conclusion he draws based on the percentage of BTC that is in the red.
Bitcoin often rose after this phase
In a tweet, the analyst shows a chart in which the percentage of BTC in circulation that is in red is shown with colored dots. A red dot means that this percentage is small (or 0), a blue dot means large. These dots are then placed on a spot on the chart based on the price at that time. If we go all the way back to the bitcoin price in 2010, you get the following chart:
~40% of all 19M bitcoins are in loss (blue). Historically blue is a great “accumulation zone”. How long blue?
– Could be 1 month (Covid2020)
– or 2 months (2011)
– 6 months (2018/19)
– 9 months (2014/15)
Time will tell. Currently at 3 blue dots. Are you going to wait until green? pic.twitter.com/qKPrgebwjI— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) July 25, 2022
In short, at the moment many bitcoins are in the minus. According to the Dutch analyst, this is historically a sign that we are in an accumulation phase. Whenever the dots turn blue, the BTC price eventually rises. However, how long it can take for the price to start rising differed:
“~40% of all 19M bitcoins are in the minus (blue). Historically, blue has been a great “accumulation zone”. How long do we stay blue?
– Can be 1 month (Covid2020)
– or 2 months (2011)
– 6 months (2018/19)
– 9 months (2014/15)
Time will tell. Currently we have 3 blue dots. Are you going to wait until green?”
That it can take a long time was also apparent from data in the daily bitcoin market update. You will find it here!
Macroeconomic situation could throw a spanner in the works for BTC price
Only the woman with the crystal ball knows whether that increase will actually happen. What we do know, however, is that the current macroeconomic situation cannot really be compared with the past 10 years. With the war raging in Ukraine and massive inflation, it remains to be seen whether we will head into a deeper recession. This could also cause further losses for bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Yesterday an interesting Premium analysis on the current economic situation was published. Read here why a recession may be coming. You can always go for daily price analysis in our Discord.