Many people expect this trend to continue after the deep bear market in 2022, but the sharp rise in prices of some cryptocurrencies has changed a lot. According to the CEO of one of the most well-known crypto market researchers, the next bull market has already begun.
“The Bitcoin bear market is already over”
Sometimes you might hear that the crypto market is very unpredictable. Kevin Kelly, CEO of Delphi Digital, wrote on Twitter that nothing could be further from the truth – the market is quite predictable. According to him, cryptocurrencies are simply highly correlated with other risky assets, which in turn largely follow the economy.
In fact, every major change in the crypto market is reflected in the so-called Economy. You can measure this pretty well with the ISM Manufacturing Index, which peaks every time the number of active wallet addresses in the crypto world also peaks.
The crypto market is highly cyclical.
Crypto market cycles are also remarkably consistent.
But their consistency is not accidental.
You are predictable.
If we are right, this has huge implications for the crypto market in the future.
Time to release some charts… 👇
— Kevin Kelly (@Kevin_Kelly_II) August 14, 2023
According to Kelly, the ISM is slowly starting to form a bottom. while Bitcoin (BTC) annual price change also signals the end of the bear market. Fears of persistent inflation, higher interest rates and a looming recession have led many people to believe that we are in a crisis bear market rally sit. This suggests that we could fall further than last December’s bottom. But Kelly disagrees.
Next crypto bull market peak in 2025?
He believes today’s market can be compared to the market of 2015 and 2016 when uncertainty also set the tone. The fear of a continuation of the credit crisis was unfounded at the time. This led to strong gains in both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The ISM follows a cycle of around 3.5 years, which ironically is quite similar to the Bitcoin halving cycle, which occurs every 4 years. The next halving is expected to happen around April 2024. This suggests that the next all-time high will be in Q4 2024 and the next crypto market peak in Q4 2025. We’ll see in the future whether the CEO is right.