Bitcoin price has been performing well recently, rising almost 10% this month. That works out to a price of $37,758. What’s special about this strength in Bitcoin is that there are pretty strong signals of recession coming from the American bond market.
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Recession is approaching, should we fear for Bitcoin?
The chart above shows that we are currently receiving fairly unclear signals from the US bond market.
Why?
The white line in the graph is the interest rate on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds minus the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds. Typically, the interest rate is higher for loans with a term of 10 years.
Because investors want more interest the longer they have to part with their capital.
So currently there is one strange situation where the interest rate for government loans with a term of 2 years is higher. The short-term interest rate is higher than the long-term interest rate. I’ve been there since then October 2022 case of.
However, this is now starting to drop to zero, and that is dangerous…
Why is this dangerous?
Because we actually ALWAYS get a recession after 2 years – 10 years – if the 10-year interest rate is higher than the 2-year interest rate.
For example, look at the graphic above.
Why is the market currently rising?
Normally a recession is bad news, but why are we seeing a market rise now?
If we look closely at this chart again, we see that the interest rate on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased again in recent weeks compared to 10-year Treasury bonds.
During this brief decline from the white line, the stock market recovered.
The fact that investors are currently accepting lower interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds suggests that they can also expect a severe recession.
Why?
Because they may think that the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates dramatically in the short term and accept lower interest rates for that reason.
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Gold and Bitcoin are exploding
Gold and Bitcoin have performed well in recent weeks. The price of gold is rising significantly against the US dollar and is currently almost $2,000. Measured from the beginning of 2023, the gold price is even up 9.30 percent.
This is a remarkable achievement for the shiny precious metal (and also for traditional financial markets).
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We are sometimes a bit spoiled with Bitcoin, although the downside of the enormous increases is of course the enormous potential for price declines.
For the possible upcoming recession, both gold and Bitcoin could theoretically be interesting choices. Especially if central banks are soon forced to cut interest rates back to zero and a major flight into scarcity begins.
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