Do you think it is still possible to prevent the war from spreading to Lebanon?
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the Middle East to prevent the war between Israel and Gaza from spreading to neighboring countries. President Biden fears that an all-out war by Israel against Hezbollah could lead to a larger conflict, particularly in Lebanon, and is trying to deter Israel from going down that path. Meanwhile, Hezbollah fighters are on the northern border with Israel and recently attacked a military base on Mount Meron in Israel. For now, the stock exchanges are cross-border skirmishes. Israel's recent assassination of senior Hamas official Saleh Al Arouri has also increased tensions in the Middle East. Attacks by Yemen-based and Iran-backed Houthis on merchant ships in the Red Sea and Iranian-backed attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq have increased tensions in the region. The prospects of a major war in the Middle East starting in Lebanon are real, and American shuttle diplomacy is doing everything it can to avoid a more costly conflict. In such a situation, no one will win.
Which Arab country could be key to ending the war in Lebanon and what would Iran do if Hezbollah attacks Israel?
On his most recent trip to the Middle East, Secretary of State Blinken visited Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank and Egypt. The Americans turned in particular to Qatar as an intermediary between Israel and Hezbollah. A single country cannot stop a war in Lebanon, so Biden and Blinken are trying to strengthen a coalition of countries against a broader war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Iran maintains relations with sympathetic groups in Yemen, Iraq, Bahrain, Syria, Palestine and Lebanon. However, Tehran neither controls the military wings of these organizations nor does it have operational control over their military units. This becomes particularly relevant in times of conflict. Local groups have their own preferences/calculations and often follow Tehran's guidelines, but they cannot always be trusted.
A confidential US report in the Washington Post said Israel could lose a war against Hezbollah because of its inability to manage two fronts at the same time. Do you think Israel is prepared for open war against the Lebanese militia?
The US government wants to prevent Israel from acting on two fronts against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon (and possibly also in the West Bank). Hezbollah is a completely different kettle of fish than Hamas, boasting more than 100,000 battle-hardened fighters as well as missiles, rockets and drones. U.S. intelligence estimates that the death toll in a war between Israel and Lebanon would exceed the death toll in the 2006 war between the two countries. In fact, predictions of between 300,000 and 500,000 deaths and injuries have been reported. If the conflict escalates further, Hezbollah and its Iranian-backed allies will launch attacks inside Israel on infrastructure, military bases and power plants. However, Hezbollah currently does not want the conflict to escalate. Israel must weigh its options, especially given the implications of a two-front war and a larger regional conflagration in the Middle East that would almost certainly turn other Arab states against Israel.
Why does Hasan Nasrallah say he doesn't want war with Israel while Hezbollah continues to fire rockets from the border?
The long-term position of Israeli defense officials and experts with close ties to the military is that they do not believe Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah wants a war with Israel. However, war prevention does not depend solely on Nasrallah's stance. Much depends on factors in Israel, Hezbollah, Iran and its proxies, and Lebanon. Hezbollah continues to fire rockets into Israel, putting pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to persuade his government's religious conservatives to take action. The lack of trust on all sides doesn't help either. Also worrying is the risk of an involuntary escalation of the conflict by one of the parties.