While the Taliban had almost reached the gates of Kabul, this Friday, August 13, continuing their relentless advance in Afghanistan, journalist Aziz Fard, a specialist in Central Asia, delivered his analysis answering questions from Harold Hyman, journalist – expert on issues international editions of CNEWS.
At a time when the regime is more in line than ever, and the United States or the United Kingdom is on the verge of evacuating its citizens and diplomats in the event of a disaster, Aziz Fard explains in particular that profound factors also illustrate this enormous success. . Taliban.
But even more fundamentally, according to the journalist, Afghanistan itself is not a viable state.
Who are the Taliban?
We tend to think of the Taliban solely as terrorists. Except there are too many to be just terrorists. According to my observations, there are several million of them, which means that the Taliban represent a resistance movement, certainly fatal, but a resistance movement nonetheless. This is worrying.
But what is even more worrying is the small part of Talibanism that can exist inside every Afghan, even every Muslim. Added to this fear is discontent and the risk that the Taliban movement will merge with “ordinary” Afghans. The hypothesis that the Taliban will be able to rally the population to their cause is even more credible given that many Afghans are against the current government. And if this hypothesis were to materialize, the Taliban could very well be unstoppable, unbeatable.
Are the Taliban’s advances reversible, in your opinion?
They haven’t won yet. Fara, a city in the west of the country, located between Herat and Kandahar, did not necessarily fall. Kunduz, who fell under the Taliban regime, often fell to be captured multiple times. But as long as Kabul, the capital, has not fallen, the game is not over.
Certainly if Herat is taken, Kandahar will be taken. Then Kabul will be under siege. At that point, the Americans and what’s left of the government can try to make something of an enclave.
Would you say Afghanistan is a viable nation state?