The hour of Bagnaia and Augustus

The Ricardo Tormo de Cheste hosts the Valencia GP this weekend with which the 2022 season of the Motorcycle World Championship concludes. It is an unmissable event, due to how long the winter will be, four and a half months of break until Portimao 2023 (March 26) and because the MotoGP and Moto2 titles are decided there (the Moto3 title was seen for judgment in Australia, by the work and grace of Izan Guevara, two races ago). A) Yes, It’s time to finish the job for Francesco Bagnaia, leader of the queen class with a 23-point advantage over Fabio Quartararo, and for Augusto Fernandez, Intermediate category leader with 9.5 points margin over Ai Ogura.

A priori, the man from Leonovo Ducati has it very feasible to become champion for the first time in MotoGP since it is enough for him to add only two points, a fourteenth place, in case of victory of the Frenchman, and he would be champion with any result if the one from Yamaha he is not capable of winning the Valencian test, which he has never done in any category. The closest he got to doing it The devil It was in 2019, when he finished second, one second behind Marc Márquez. Therefore, it seems clear that only a hecatomb, even greater than that of Valentino Rossi with Nicky Hayden in 2006 on this same stage, would distance Pecco of his second title (he was already Moto2 champion in 2018).

In Quartararo’s key, the miracle is to win and that his rival finished fifteenth or worse. That is to say, win and that the Ducati rider does not finish the race, because whenever he does it is in more decent positions. Numerically speaking, it is in favor of the Yamaha rider that in a third of his MotoGP victories, in four out of eleven, Bagnaia did not finish the race, due to a crash or retirement. It is a result that has already occurred in Andalusia 2020, Italy 2021, Catalonia 2022 and Germany 2022. As you can see, something like this was seen twice this season, the same in which Bagnaia accumulates seven victories, after the one harvested in Malaysia, but also a whopping five zeros. That happened in Qatar, France, Catalonia, Germany and Japan, which is why after the German fiasco he was 91 points behind the leadership that Quartararo then held.

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As you can see, Pecco has been capable of the best and the worst this year, That is why we will have to wait for the flag to fall next Sunday at about a quarter to three to really know who the 2023 MotoGP champion is. A couple of hours before the Moto2 event will be known, a category in which there have been so many changes of leader this season that it almost seems that none of them wanted to be. The year started with dominance by a faded Celestino Vietti and then there was an exaggerated exchange of positions at the head of the general classification, with Augusto and Ogura giving each other gifts. The most resounding was the one that the Japanese did to the Spanish two weeks ago in Malaysia…

When the Red Bull KTM Ajo rider had everything against him and the fourth place he seemed doomed to was the lesser evil, Ogura crashed on the last lap, when he was assured of second place and seven more points ahead of the man from Madrid based in Mallorca, for trying to overtake Tony Arbolino with an impossible braking.

After that, Augusto now has a 9.5 advantage over Ai and any podium in Cheste would make him champion no matter what his rival did. The rest of the combinations are these:

-If he does 4th or 5th and Ogura doesn’t win.

-If he is 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th and Ogura is 3rd at most.

-If he does 10th, 11th or 12th and Ogura does not get on the podium.

-If it’s 13th or 14th and Ogura is at most 5th.

-If it’s 15th and Ogura is at most 6th.

-If Ogura does not score, he is at most 7th.

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