All eyes are once again on Viktor Orban’s Hungary. The Twenty-Seven are considering all possible options for the Hungarian prime minister to override his veto on the Ukraine aid package worth 50 billion euros over four years. Diplomatic sources admit that tempers are running high and a “difficult” meeting is expected. At the last December summit, Orban stopped blocking the start of accession negotiations with Ukraine through a diplomatic strategy coordinated with the other partners. At the request of the Federal Chancellor Olaf SholzHe left the room as the others gave the green light. But such tricks don’t work with the aid package for the Kiev government.
That’s why we need to consider other options that oscillate between stick and carrot. Threats and appeals to harmony. On Monday, the Financial Times reported on an internal document listing European countries study and leave Hungary without any European resources If he were to stick to his veto, it would have serious economic consequences for the country. Although the publication of this internal document can be interpreted as an attempt at intimidation by Hungary, diplomatic sources immediately came forward and tried not to add fuel to the fire. They assured that it was a “context note written by the Council Secretariat on its own responsibility and describing the current situation of the Hungarian economy.”
In this sense, they explained that this document “does not reflect a concrete plan”, neither for the general budget nor for the economic package of Ukraine, and that these discussions were always based on “finding a compromise acceptable to all twenty-seven”. .”
The tone towards Hungary has become more harsh in recent weeks. The digital Politico also assured last week, citing anonymous diplomatic sources, that European leaders would consider giving new impetus to Article 7 , the so-called nuclear button, which in the final stage can lead to a country being deprived of its voting rights in the Council if a systematic violation of the rule of law is detected.
The alliance between Hungary and the previous Polish government had brought this procedure to a standstill, as unanimity of the capitals is required to further develop the procedures. When asked about the issue, Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders distinguished himself and limited himself to assuring that “there is nothing worse” than a vote that does not receive enough support.
On January 18, the European Parliament threatened the European Commission with legal action if the local government released further funds to Hungary. Brussels has decided to pay out 10.2 billion euros on December 13ths considering that Budapest has made some progress in maintaining the independence of the judiciary. Following this decision, made a day before the European summit in December, Orban decided to lift his veto on starting accession negotiations with Hungary, although he continued to refuse to support the investment plan.
Although The Commission withheld 20 billion euros Until Budapest completes the necessary reforms on academic freedom and corruption, MPs fear that relations between the Twenty-Seven and Orban will become a constant “blackmail”.
Facing pressure from the European Parliament, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, warned that there would be no further disbursements to Budapest until there was progress in the remaining areas. German politicians also defended the decision made in December, as Hungary introduced new regulations in May that “strengthen the independence of the judiciary and limit the possibility of political interference in the judiciary.” Nobody knows exactly what will happen at today’s summit.
In the preparatory meetings, Hungary changed its stance and would like to be able to approve this aid package every year, while reserving the right to veto every twelve months. An approach that is contrary to that taken by the Commission, which favors predictable financing. If Hungary continues to block the initiative, the other partners could start an independent mechanism outside the Community budgetwhich would leave Hungary completely isolated in the community club.
The problem is that resolving these features could result in some European countries having to proceed with the parliamentary ratification of this aid, which would delay the entire process. Diplomatic sources assure that the priority remains a decision for Twenty-Seven, but they do not rule out “Plan B”. He will be President of the Council, Charles Michel, the one responsible for showing the way. An informal dinner for European heads of state and government took place last night away from the spotlight of journalists. Perhaps this previous meeting, which will not be attended by all heads of state and government, can pave the way.
