The current bitcoin price hovers between $ 40,000- $ 44,000: What can we expect this weekend?

The future of bitcoin will likely be played out during this week. The cryptocurrency must show signs of resistance strong enough not to sink below $ 40,000 even if it means favoring its fall towards $ 29,000. For many experts, the $ 40,000 – $ 44,000 area is a real battleground. Close to $ 40,000, BTC plunges to quarterly lows. Almost $ 44,000, en route to attack the $ 64,800 ATH.

Bitcoin: The Fed’s exit will be very decisive

The market fears the announcement of a reduction in purchases of 120 billion of Fed bonds during this exit in September. For the first time in a year, the shadow of a hawkish exit is sterilizing movements on the various financial markets. The fear of ” tapering Is palpable. However, experts believe that the US Central Bank should not start cutting bond purchases or at least not until November or December.

Speaking to CNBC Markets, Rick Rieder, a BlackRock executive said:

I think they’re going to say they had a discussion about tapering. I don’t think they will provide details. I think they’re going to provide a framework in which they can start doing this in November or December.

A study conducted by CNBC among 32 market gurus confirms Rieder’s comments. They are 20 to think that the Fed will apply the “tapering” between November and December. While all eyes are on reducing bond purchases, some experts including Anwiti Bahuguna believe that the “Tapering” is not a market influencing event. For the head of Columbia Threadneedle, the focus of tomorrow will instead be on interest rate hike forecasts. As for rates, they are not expected to rise until the end of 2022 according to 17 experts in the same CNBC Markets survey.

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Scenarios to consider!

Cryptoast (Youtube) – Vincent Ganne: Technical analysis Tuesday, September 21

Given that there is a high probability that the Fed will not comment on reducing bonds during this September, cryptocurrencies like all other risky assets should pick up again. There may be a downside: September is a generally bearish month for the stock market.

According to data contained in a refinancing table showing the performance of the S&P 500 between 1962 and 2020, the month of September shows a performance of -0.4%. Vincent Ganne has done the same for bitcoin over the past 12 years, seeing cryptocurrency performing -7% in September, the only month BTC underperforms.

In the event that the Fed’s exit presents a rather hawkish tone, the scheme is simple. The loss of $ 40,000 and return to June-July levels.

However, the expiration of 70,000 bitcoin options on September 24 will also have a decisive effect on the future price of bitcoin. In fact, it’s the biggest bitcoin options expiration of the year. In view of the current market situation, nothing has been decided yet for calls and puts.

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