After nearly a decade of war in Yemen, the Houthi rebels have found in the confrontation with the United States in the Red Sea a source of legitimacy and the unconditional support of hundreds of thousands of Yemenis who are simultaneously watching their ties erode. Ways to achieve peace in the country.
The insurgents, who have controlled much of the country's west since 2014, “welcomed” open confrontation with the United States, which has bombed dozens of military positions in Yemen in the last three days, leaving at least five rebels dead.
Although Washington asserts that it does not seek war but will respond decisively to threats to shipping in the Red Sea, the Houthis have insisted they will continue to attack commercial shipping to hurt Israel economically and support Palestinians in the region . Gaza Strip.
Own interest
With Iran's support, they are staunch supporters of the Palestinian cause, although the Red Sea crisis also serves their own propaganda interests to recruit more combatants and give them a sense of weight in the regional arena.
“For them this means legitimacy, popularity and presence on a regional and international level. “They have been able to distinguish themselves as regional or international actors who can at least disrupt international interests,” Farea al Muslimi, a Yemeni analyst at Chatham House, told EFE. .
“I think the Houthis will not retreat, they will even go further. “In some ways they expect and desire a direct confrontation with the United States or the West,” says the expert, who warns of the possibility that the Houthis will insurgents begin attacking “Western economic and oil infrastructure” as well as US -attack American and British military bases in the Middle East.
No punishment
The rebels themselves have said the bombings against Yemen “will not go unpunished” and have vowed to respond with greater force, despite Washington and London's assurances that the Houthis' military capabilities have been compromised following the bombings.
Nearly a decade of war in Yemen has already tested the resistance of the Houthis, who, with the help of Iran, have bolstered their arsenal despite air strikes by the Saudi-led military coalition that has intervened in the country since 2015. The internationally recognized Yemeni government has intervened in the country since 2015.
“This won’t end well for anyone. “We are in a time where the Houthis feel that they can be maximalist, that they can play the zero-sum game, but they don’t care about the price,” says Al Muslimi.
Another burden on peace in Yemen
The Houthis and the Saudi-backed government reached an unprecedented ceasefire in April 2022, which, although it expired a few months later, has largely been held since then and has managed to stop large-scale attacks.
Despite being a belligerent party, Saudi Arabia has become a mediator and has made a series of concessions to achieve de-escalation, stop the Houthis' cross-border attacks on its territory and lay the foundation for the start of a peace process.
But the war in the Gaza Strip and its effects have changed everything: the UN envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, warned on Saturday and called for “ensuring the progress of peace efforts” after the bombings. Americans and British.
“This will definitely ruin the peace process in Yemen,” says the expert, recalling that the Red Sea crisis has already led to delays in possible negotiations on the exchange of prisoners and the establishment of a roadmap to end the war.
In addition, the analyst points out that it could break the agreements with Saudi Arabia – which was in talks to normalize relations with Israel before the outbreak of the war in Gaza – and by intercepting it represented “the first line of defense” of the Jewish state Missiles in its airspace that have been fired by the Houthis in the past.
The military escalation in the Red Sea is raising fears that a regional conflict is imminent, but is also keeping residents of Yemen on tenterhooks, which after nearly a decade of war has become the site of the largest humanitarian disaster on the planet, according to the UN.