The killing of Hamas number two, Saleh al Arouri, last Tuesday is widely attributed to the assassination Israeland above all its location, in the Shiite Muslim district of Dahiyeh in the south BeirutHezbollah stronghold, location of pro-Iranian Lebanese organization in a dilemma regarding its future involvement in the war against Israel. He Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah, in August threatened harsh retaliation against any Israeli attack on Lebanese territory. The killing of Arouri, a senior Hamas member, almost forced Nasrallah to resort to violent retaliation.
In fact, Israel has been anticipating possible sophisticated missiles from Hezbollah since October 8th. Israelis who have no shelter in their homes know that if that were to happen, it would be a completely different, worse situation than what is happening now with Hamas.. And yet in his speech on Wednesday, Nasrallah showed no desire to go to war. He described the targeted killings attributed to Israel as ““a criminal act” that Hezbollah did not want to allow without an answer, but he also stated that he was not ready to start an all-out war. If Israel decided to encourage such a conflict, its organization would respond with extreme force and without restraint, he said.
But it is also legitimate to ask Since when did enemies warn each other about their intentions? Now, in addition to Hezbollah, Hamas also has to settle a score with Israel in Beirut. Their retaliation could come in the form of massive rocket fire by their operatives in Lebanon, coordinated or complacent by Nasrallah, or in the form of terrorist attacks in the West Bank. The coming days are expected to become even more tense in the West Bank and Jerusalem as many members of Hamas's military wing invade West Bank, Since they are instructed and financed by Arouri, they could take revenge.
The federal government announced that it would review the situation on the border between Israel and Lebanon, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said shortly before the German diplomatic chief's trip to the Middle East to hold talks about possible and undesirable progress. regional war. “Unfortunately, the risk of escalation is very real,” said the spokesman.
The German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, He will leave for Israel today to meet with his new counterpart Israel Katzand with Israeli President Isaac Herzog. He also plans to hold talks with representatives of the Palestinian Authority (PNA) in the West Bank.
More than 76,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon in nearly three months of daily fighting with Israel along the border, the United Nations' International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported. More than 80 percent of the displaced Lebanese are staying with relatives, according to the report, and only 2 percent are staying in 14 collective shelters in the south of the country, mainly in the coastal city of Tire and the Hasbaya region. The rest have rented apartments or moved to houses in areas further from the border, the UN agency added.
For his part, according to information communicated by the Israeli Defense Minister on Thursday, Yoav Gallant, with US special envoy to the region Amos Hochstein, more than 80,000 residents of northern Israel have been displaced by cross-border clashes. Most can be found in hotels across the country.
The Israeli government makes the return of the displaced people conditional on there being no further threat from Hezbollah to border communities, which provokes different interpretations. The diplomatic solution that the European Union is striving for with its Chancellor Josep Borrell At the top is the option to, among other things, agree that Hezbollah withdraws beyond the Litani River and Israel does the same in the other direction. But war could be the alternative that either Israel or Hezbollah is forced to make if each truly seeks to deter the other, regardless of Arouri's killing.
If Israel is indeed responsible for the death of Hamas' number two and six other members of the Islamist organization, that could be a signal for Hezbollah and Iran The Hebrew state is convinced that it is prepared for a war in Lebanon, with all that means for beleaguered Lebanon and the Israeli rearguard.
Many wonder about the timing of Arouri's selective murder. involved in the arrangements for the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, so his death would seem like a shot in the foot of Israel; But others recall that after nearly three months of war, Israel has failed to kill any of the senior Hamas commanders in the Gaza Strip. That's why Arouri, who helped plan hundreds of terrorist attacks in the West Bank, could be a useful replacement.
Another tragic event that occurred in the region this week could impact the ongoing conflict. Two massive explosions in southern Iran killed more than 100 participants in the annual commemoration ceremony General SoleimaniCommander of the Quds Forcea detachment of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for extraterritorial and clandestine military operations, killed by a US drone in 2020. Although Daesh, a Sunni Muslim terrorist organization (self-proclaimed Islamic State) claimed responsibility for the attack, Iran continues to blame Israel. The intra-Muslim confrontation between Shiites and Sunnis can only add fuel to the fire.