Research shows circulation in the Atlantic Ocean is nearing a tipping point, which is “bad news for the climate system and humanity.”
The scientists who conducted the study said they were surprised by the expected speed of the collapse once that point is reached, but noted that it is still impossible to predict how quickly it will occur.
Using computer models and previous data, scientists have developed an early warning indicator of disturbances in the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC), a system of ocean currents whose extensive circulation is an important factor in regulating the global climate.
They discovered that Amoc was on its way to drastic changes that had not occurred in more than 10,000 years and that would have catastrophic consequences for much of the world.
The Amoc, part of the Gulf Stream and other strong currents, is an ocean conveyor belt that carries heat, carbon and nutrients from the tropics to the Arctic Circle, where they cool and sink into the deep sea.
This stimulation helps distribute energy across the Earth and mitigate the effects of human-caused global warming.
But the Atlantic current system is collapsing as Greenland glaciers and Arctic ice sheets melt faster than expected, pouring fresh water into the sea and blocking the inflow of warmer, saltier water from the south.
The value of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (Amoc) has fallen 15% since 1950 and is at its weakest level in more than a millennium, according to previous research that has sparked speculation of an impending collapse.
To date, there is no consensus about the severity of events in the Atlantic Ocean
Research last year based on changes in sea surface temperatures concluded that the tipping point could be between 2025 and 2095.
However, Britain’s Met Office said major and rapid changes to the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (Amoc) were “highly unlikely” in the 21st century.
A new paper published in the journal Science Advances breaks new ground by examining salinity warning signs in the South Atlantic between Cape Town and Buenos Aires.
By simulating changes over 2,000 years in computer models of the global climate, he found that a slow decline in the climate could lead to a sudden collapse in less than 100 years, with devastating and catastrophic consequences.
The article states that the results provide a “clear answer” to whether such radical change is possible: “This is bad news for the climate system and humanity, because for now the rampage propensity can only be considered as a concept. “ and the addiction will disappear.
after taking into account the entire climate system with all its additional feedbacks.”
It also describes some of the consequences of the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (Amoc).
In some areas, sea levels in the Atlantic Ocean will rise by up to 1 meter, causing flooding in many coastal cities.
The Amazon’s dry and rainy seasons will change, which could bring the already weakened rainforest to a tipping point.
Temperatures around the world will fluctuate much more erratically.
It’s getting warmer in the southern hemisphere.
In Europe it will be significantly colder and there will be less rain. While this may seem attractive compared to current warming trends, changes will occur ten times faster than now, making adaptation nearly impossible.
“We were surprised by the speed with which the transmission occurred,” said lead author René van Westen from Utrecht University.
“It would be devastating.” He said there is not enough data yet to say whether this will happen in the next year or the next century, but if it does, the changes will be irreversible in human time.
Meanwhile, the direction of travel is certainly a concern. “We are moving in that direction. “It’s a little scary,” van Westen said. “We need to take climate change much more seriously.”