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“Technically, there is nothing in US law that would prevent an incarcerated felon from running for office and winning the presidency.”

Trump has returned to Twitter (now X) to post his mug shot. In the previous election campaign, he used this social network to communicate directly with voters. Is the New York tycoon restarting his campaign?

Trump acts as his own campaign manager, his own press secretary, and his own speechwriter. She loves social media because she can bypass conventional press and speak directly to her followers. He was banned from social media for a while, but now he’s back with a vengeance. A complication: His natural instinct is to brutally attack jurors and witnesses at his trials via social media. However, some judges and prosecutors will consider this a crime of “witness intimidation” and “jury manipulation.” If you use social media this way (and you will want to), you are likely to run into even more legal problems.

Why does Trump’s popular support grow with every new indictment?

Polls vary, but about a third of registered Republican voters are Trump supporters and view any lawsuit against him as strong evidence of elitist discrimination. So the worse Trump’s legal troubles get, the more they support him. About another third of Republican voters would like another candidate with a better chance of beating the Democrats. They really don’t like the Democrats but want to get rid of Trump because they think he can’t win in the end. About a final third could go either way. Consider that only a quarter of voters are Republicans and a quarter are Democrats; About half of US voters do not want to affiliate with any party. As such, one should not overstate actual support for Trump or Biden as early polls focus on party identifications.

What are the odds of Trump getting out of jail and becoming president?

Technically, there is nothing in US law that would prevent an incarcerated felon from running for office and winning the presidency. Could happen. But it’s hard to imagine that the average voter would go for it. But we live in a strange world.

Could he benefit from diplomatic immunity if he wins the 2024 election?

If Trump is elected president before the case against him is resolved in federal court (which he might be if his attorneys are smart), once in office he can fire the federal prosecutor and apologize for any wrongdoing himself . That would be a terrible scandal, of course. One of the reasons the legal case in the state of Georgia is important is that it cannot be enforced because it is based on state law, not federal law. American law can be very strange!

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