Taiwan is many things at once. On an island. It is a small country with an area of just 36,000 square kilometers, less than, for example, Switzerland or similar to Catalonia. It is also a democracy. AND a stone in the shoe of a giant like China. And above all, it is an extremely sensitive topic in the global geopolitical body.
In diplomatic terms, Taiwan is a highly flammable material that can explode at any time. And that's why the presidential election before you this Saturday, January 13th, the first of more than 70 elections to take place around the world this year, is so important.
They are accompanied by three candidates whose names the reader can hardly remember. (Ko Wen-je, Hou Yu-ih and William Lai), but ultimately that's not the important thing. What is relevant is that they represent three ways of understanding their country's relations with neighboring China, a dictatorship that has no qualms about showing itself to be a giant bear patiently waiting for the moment to destroy the innocent ant.
Historically, Beijing claims annexation of this island (“reunification,” in the language of Chinese Communist Party propaganda), even though it was never part of its territory. Chinese President Xi Jinping has tightened the tone of his demands and has reached the point In his New Year's Eve speech, he announced that the union was “inevitable.”
The vast majority of the Taiwanese population is against this accession and would rather stay a thriving economy, a full-fledged democracy and a loyal ally of the United States, its main international support and – incidentally – its largest arms supplier. At least these last two virtues would disappear in one fell swoop with the unification. And economic strength remains to be seen.
Three candidates for president
There are three candidates in this Saturday's election who, in a sense, represent the three “souls” of Taiwanese society.
One of them is William Lai (Lai Ching-te in the local language), current vice president and candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). He is a supporter of Maintaining current independence from Beijing However, he ruled out a formal declaration of independence so as not to tempt fate. Taiwan is already a “sovereign and independent” country, he claims.
His victory is therefore both desired and feared by Washington, because it would curb China's ambitions, but for this very reason it could encourage the giant to take measures to subjugate the island. He is the favorite in the polls.
His main rival is Hou Yu-ih, leader of the Kuomintang (KMT), who has around 30% support in the polls. On paper, Hou is the pro-Beijing candidatealthough during the election campaign he insisted on the need to find a “middle ground” between independence, which he said would inevitably lead to a “war” with China, and reunification, moving away from his more traditional positions.
“I strongly oppose independence and 'one country, two systems' (an approach Beijing uses in Hong Kong and Macau). This is the middle path we have to take.”he emphasized this Thursday in a press conference before the election, reports Efe.
Third in the competition is Ko Wen-je, a species “Third Way” This promises to break the bipartisanship that separates the pro-independence green coalition and the pro-China blue list. It has a voting intention of almost 20% and strong support among young people, but does not have a very clear position on national issues.
“Right now, maintaining the status quo is the only option we have because the United States will not allow Taiwan to unite with China, nor will China make Taiwan independent.” “It doesn't even make sense now, about “To talk about independence or reunification because you can't achieve both,” Ko said in an interview with Bloomberg last September, reported by Efe agency.
In the background China and the United States
And behind this competition are two powers: the United States and China. Yesterday, Beijing accused Washington of meddling in the election and threatened from time to time to station its weapons around the small island to convince it that the two territories should be a single country.
Meanwhile, Taipei is confident that the protection of its great ally will be enough to deter its voracious enemy, a fact that is not entirely clear. If China takes action, What will be the reaction of the United States? Political instability in the US and the start of an election year increase uncertainty.
Whatever the outcome, this Saturday's elections in Taiwan will have an impact on international politics. Something that Switzerland's quiet voters can never aspire to.