Somalia: Nothing Works Between President Farmajo and Prime Minister Mohamed Roble

The disappearance of a young woman, a cyber expert at the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), has triggered a serious crisis in the Somali executive. The split seems to be consumed between President Farmajo and his prime minister Mohammed Roble.

It starts off as a spy movie when, at the end of June, Ikran Tahlil, a 25-year-old NISA employee, disappears in a very intriguing way. Nothing is filtered for weeks, and suddenly everything gets excited. NISA gives its version: then speaks of a kidnapping promoted by the shebab jihadists who later would have executed the young woman. But the latter denies any involvement and Ikran Tahlil’s family blames his employer, NISA. The Agency is even used to this type of behavior to cover up its own crimes. Ikran Tahlil may have known a little too much and he had to be eliminated.

In any case, Prime Minister Mohamed Roble requested a full report on the matter from the agency’s director, Fahad Yasin, because he was judging the investigative report. “Unconvincing”. But Fahad Yasin, former chief of staff of President Farmajo, refuses, which earned him suspended in place. The reaction of the presidency was not long in canceling this decision “illegal and unconstitutional”. In the process, Fahad Yasin was named security adviser to the Head of State. Interim NISA leadership will be provided by Colonel Yasin Abdullahi Mohamud, who is close to Fahad Yasin.

Divorce is therefore consummated between the two men. Prime Minister accuses president of obstructing investigation “in the same way that the justice and police services were previously prevented from carrying out a full investigation”.

Mohamed Roble was appointed prime minister in September 2020. At the same time, an agreement was signed between the country’s various political actors to elect Farmajo’s successor. But it ended in a stalemate and President Farmajo managed to extend his term for two years in mid-April of this year, sparking opposition ire and armed clashes in Mogadishu.

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Despite everything, Mohamed Roble, responsible for organizing the elections for the president, managed to reach a consensus on the date initially set for 10 October this year. But already, due to the complexity of the political system, a deadline has appeared. The election must now be held between October 1st and November 25th.

Until then, we will have to exit the Ikran Tahlil archive. “This conflict, if not resolved amicably, will complicate all other ongoing political efforts, including the electoral process, which will be postponed or even stopped altogether.”, fears Abdikani Omar, a former senior official interviewed by AFP.

The services of the presidency announced that a national security council will be held on September 18 and that NISA will submit the investigation report as requested. If it is very favorable to their services, the report runs the risk of relaunching the crisis at the top of the state. “If both sides persist, then the possibility of this political crisis turning into a security crisis is real”, warns Omar Mahmood, analyst at the International Crisis Group.

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