Mexico is undeniably grappling with the challenges of drug trafficking and violence, and one of the states most affected by these issues is Sinaloa, located in the northeast of the country. The region has been embroiled in a crisis of violence, and since September 2024, the situation has taken a worrying turn due to an internal struggle within the Sinaloa cartel, one of the most powerful criminal organizations in the world.
After the capture of Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada, co-founder of the organization, confrontations between rival factions have resulted in a staggering balance of more than 800 murders in just five months, according to data from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP), and a 165% increase in homicides in January 2025 compared to the same month of the previous year.
## The Sinaloa Cartel fracture
The internal fight has two main sides: the Chapitos, led by the children of Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán, and the Mayiza, Grupo Leal A Zambada, who was arrested in July 2024 in a move that the Mexican government described as a “kidnapping” orchestrated by Washington. According to official reports, Joaquín Guzmán López, son of ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán, would have been the one who betrayed Zambada to the US authorities. This capture generated an ideal power vacuum, allowing clashes between bands to become constant and violence to increase in key municipalities such as Culiacán, Mazatlán, and Los Mochis.
The situation has also led to increased tensions between the US government and Mexico, as Zambada delivered a letter to the consulate of her country in New York, in which she points out that the Mexican president “must intervene” in her case and ask for her repatriation. Meanwhile, the Mexican president has indicated Washington as responsible for the crisis of violence in Sinaloa, for allowing the capture of Zambada without coordination with the Mexican authorities.
## The response of the Mexican government
Regarding actions to solve the crisis, the Mexican president, who assumed the presidency in December 2024, has promised results in security, focusing on intelligence and capturing criminal leaders. The recent arrest of Kevin Alonso, head of security of Iván Archivaldo Guzmán, aka ‘El Chapito’, has been noted as a significant blow against organized crime. However, violence has not ceased.
The governor of Sinaloa, Rubén Rocha Moya, has been criticized for minimizing the crisis, with statements such as “In Sinaloa, you live perfectly well” generating outrage among the inhabitants of the state, who demand a more effective response to stop the wave of violence. The business and opposition sectors have also questioned the capacity of the state government to contain the situation.
## The “Chapitos” on the verge of disappearance
Analysts and organized crime experts have indicated that the possible repatriation of Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada could restructure the balance of power inside the cartel. According to journalist José Luis Montenegro, if the Mexican government manages to bring Zambada back, it could lead to a pact with the Mayiza to neutralize the Chapitos, who have been identified as the main generators of violence in the region.
The fate of the Chapitos is at stake, with both Joaquín Guzmán López and Ovidio Guzmán in custody in the United States and potentially facing guilty agreements to avoid more severe sentences. This could further weaken their faction inside the cartel and open the door to a new leadership structure.