The recent rise of military boards in the Sahel region has sparked intense debate and passion, both within West Africa and beyond. Some Europeans have even begun to view General Assimi Goita of Mali, Captain Ibrahim Traoré of Burkina Faso, and General Abderramán Tchiani of Niger as the leaders who will bring about a significant shift in the reality of their countries, freeing them from the grip of poverty, colonialism, and other ills. The impassioned speeches of Captain Traoré, now affectionately known as “The New Thomas Sankara,” have taken social media by storm. Moreover, the firm resistance shown by these three countries against French presence in Africa is noteworthy, to the point of forcing the old colonial power to relinquish its grip.
The military leaders came to power through a series of coups, with two primary promises: to expel the French from their territories and embark on a path towards economic independence. This issue has garnered global attention, and it is true that the new Sahel leaders have fulfilled the first part of their promises. Notable measures include the creation of the Sahel States Alliance (AES), which marks a dissociation from the Economic Community of Western African States (CEDEAO). In Burkina Faso and Mali, new factories have been opened in the textile and food sectors, while the search for new partners has allowed for a degree of flexibility in their sovereign decisions.
Addressing Islamic Terrorism
The second promise made by the military leaders was to put an end to Islamic terrorism, which has ravaged Mali since 2012 and Burkina Faso and Niger since 2015. They accused French troops deployed in their territory of hindering efforts in the war against terrorism and proceeded to expel them. In response, they initiated new partnerships with Russia and the Wagner group, while also launching internal recruitment programs to boost the operational capacity of their armed forces, whether through volunteer militias or regular military personnel.
To accurately assess the results of the military boards in the anti-terrorist struggle, it is essential to examine the numbers: the number of attacks, victims, refugees, displaced persons, and so on. For instance, considering the numbers prior to each coup d’etat and the most recent available numbers can provide valuable insights. Let’s start with the coup d’etat that occurred in Mali in May 2021, which ultimately led to Assimi Goita’s rise to power, and analyze the numbers from that period.
Mali
According to data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and other United Nations organizations, in May 2021, there were approximately 372,000 internally displaced persons in Mali. By December 2024, this number had risen to 385,000 displaced persons. Although the number has increased, it’s crucial to note that the figures for internally displaced persons are highly volatile and rarely remain static. In July 2024, for example, 331,000 displaced persons were counted in Mali, which is 40,000 fewer than when Assimi Goita took power. Thus, it can be affirmed that the balance of internally displaced persons in Mali has remained relatively stable since the 2021 coup.
The situation regarding refugees is perhaps the most concerning. In May 2021, Niger hosted just over 61,000 Malian refugees, whereas in December 2024, the number stood at around 163,000. In September 2021, Mauritania welcomed 67,400 Malian refugees; by December 2024, this number had exceeded 158,000. According to UN numbers, the number of refugees from Mali has increased by 267% and 234% in Mauritania and Niger, respectively.
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso’s coup d’etat took place in September 2022. At that time, the number of internally displaced persons in the country was 1.9 million; this number has since increased to 2.1 million in December 2024. The available data on Burkinabés who have fled to neighboring countries is scarce due to the variety of destinations and the absence of refugee camps. However, it’s estimated that 60,000 people fled to neighboring countries such as Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo, and Benin during the first nine months of Ibrahim Traoré’s rule.
Niger
Niger was the last country to be governed by a military board, which occurred in July 2023. At that time, the country had 227,000 internally displaced persons, a figure that has since been significantly reduced to 163,000. The number of Nigerian refugees in Mali was around 19,000, compared to the 23,000 counted in December. This slight increase is not significant compared to the reduction in internally displaced persons. It’s worth noting that Niger is the country in Western Africa that receives the most refugees, particularly from Nigeria, with around 200,000 Nigerians hosted in the country.
The numbers related to schools and health centers, as well as those suffering from food insecurity, follow a different trend in Niger compared to Mali and Burkina Faso. If 953 closed schools and 6 closed health centers were counted in Niger in August 2023, the numbers in December 2024 became 941 closed schools and 8 closed health centers. In August 2023, 66,000 children were counted as suffering from severe malnutrition, a number that decreased to 46,000 in December 2024. Food insecurity has decreased from affecting 1.7 million Nigeriens to 700,000.
In conclusion, based on the available data, it can be said that the total number of displaced persons has increased, the number of refugees has increased, the number of deaths has increased, and the number of closed health centers and schools has increased. The only perceived improvement is in the food sector.