The results of the Russian parliamentary elections are not expected before polling stations close on Sunday, September 19, and yet the result is almost known in advance. Indeed, the Kremlin dismissed all the most dangerous competitors to guarantee its party, United Russia, the majority of seats in the Duma.
Some 108 million Russians are still called to the polls between Friday 17 and Sunday 19 September to elect the 450 deputies of the lower house of Parliament. Franceinfo explains why these elections should crown United Russia, Vladimir Putin’s party.
Because candidates were “selected” by the Kremlin
Predictions are clear even before the vote is over: United Russia, the ruling party, will win. The Kremlin, which already held the majority of seats in the Duma, worked to eliminate all competitors “considered dangerous”, explains Anna Colin, Russia specialist.
“For several months, the power administratively filtered the opposition, which could be detrimental to it.”
Anna Colin, professor at the Paris-Nanterre Universityto France
Thus, the courts or electoral commissions have banned hundreds of candidates considered undesirable, including those who support one of the main opposition figures, Alexei navalny.
However, the United Russia party still campaigned to convince its voters due to low popularity in polls. “The power presented great figures of the party, responsible for the defense of government policy”, explains Françoise to franceinfo Daucé, director of studies in The’EHESS (School of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences). Among the most iconic personalities are the very popular Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu, respectively Foreign and Defense Ministers whose faces are enthroned on huge posters in Moscow. The Institute Vtsiom (the main state-controlled research institute) give them 70% favorable reviews.
The Kremlin was also able to launch civil society candidacies. In particular that of Denis Protsenko. This head of a large Moscow hospital was the face of the struggle against Covid-19. Approached to be a candidate, he initially refused. But Vladimir Putin finally called him in person. The doctor finally agreed and launched into the campaign.
because the opposition is muzzled
After the Kremlin’s big cleanup, a few anecdotal candidates or candidates belonging to formations accommodated with the capacity were allowed to present themselves. In between they, those of the candidates of the opposition parties that remain “loyal to power and who already have seats in Parliament”, assures Franceinfo Anna Colin. Because for twenty years, there were only three parties in the parliamentary opposition: the communists, the nationalists of LDPR and the centrists of Just Russia. “Its deputies in Parliament vote according to the ruling parties”, specifies Anna Colin. It should be noted, however, that the communists (KPRF), usually measured in relation to power, are this time very combative. Then the KPRF it finds itself almost alone in a position to capture the protest vote in legislative elections.
Even in opposition, rare anti-power candidacies were tolerated by the electoral committees.
“The authorities hope this way to make people believe in a facade of pluralism, but in reality, they know that these opponents have little chance of winning.”
Françoise Daucé, Director of Studies at EHESSto France
For example, Andrei Pivovarov is campaigning in his Krasnodar prison, where he has been held since May, accused of collaborating with a banned organization linked to ousted oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
Because even on social media, the opposition is under the Moscow offensive
On Friday, September 17, after several days of pressure on Google and Apple’s download platforms, the Kremlin finally managed to remove the application created by the team inAlexei Navalny to influence the field. from your prison, where he has been imprisoned since his arrest on his return to Russia in mid-January, the opponent called its supporters to vote “clever”, supporting the best-placed candidates against United Russia. swe camp, excluded from the vote, had Published a list of suggested candidates to vote for, on a form designed for the occasion.
Рекомендации Умного голосования на выборах в Госдуму. Все 225 округов https://t.co/JzC82ptVp5
– Alexey Navalny (@navalny) September 17, 2021
Most are candidates of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. (KPRF). Camp Initiative navalny and its success did not fail to irritate Moscow, which intensified the offensive against this qualified vote. “extremist”.
After the app was put online, the government immediately accused the internet giants of interfering in its affairs, refusing to remove content it deems illegal, even going to to express his anger to the American ambassador. Representatives from Apple and Google were also summoned on Thursday before a committee of the upper house of Parliament, the Federation Council.
After the app disappeared, anti-system opponents blamed Apple and Google capitulate under the pressure of power. Leonid Volkov, exiled opposition leader, the For in turn, accused of “give in to the Kremlin’s blackmail”. “We may doubt the effectiveness of Camp Navalny’s strategy, but the very interest in this kind of idea shows that there is an atmosphere of protest.”, guarantees Françoise Daucé.
“Since 2003, that is, almost twenty years, no independent candidate has won a victory in the Duma elections”, remembered Alexei navalny wednesday in a message posted on your social networks, calling his supporters for a meaningful vote.
Because fraud is made easy
In this election, fraud looks easier than ever. First, because polling stations are open for three days, a rare occurrence in Russia. Officially, it is to avoid office congestion, while the country is still mired in the health crisis linked to the Covid-19. But for some observers, it is above all an opportunity to defraud more easily. “In three days, the opportunities to fill the ballot boxes are more numerous”, summarizes Anna Colin.
Power also slowed down election observation. Russia remarkably closed the door on the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe), again on the pretext of health reasons. “The body was allowed to send only a few dozen observers to Russia, which it considered ridiculous and eventually gave up.”, develops Françoise Saucé.
Finally, in early August, the authorities removed the webcams that, for several years, had filmed the electoral process at each polling station and whose images were accessible to all citizens. The device was installed after the 2011-2012 protest movement. “It made it possible to contain ballot box stuffing and shed light on countless frauds”, explains Anna Colin.
More insidiously, in one of St. Petersburg’s constituencies, to deceive voters of opposition candidate Boris Vishnevsky, two other candidates changed their names to his. Despite having the same physical appearance as he does on campaign posters, including a beard.
Мошенничество продолжается.
Мои “двойники”, на время выборов ставшие “Борисами Вишневскими”, сменив имя и фаминилию, теипимини. Отрастили бороды и усы, и думаю, еще и подретушировались.
Посмотрите, как они выглядят на плакате, который будет висеть на участках. pic.twitter.com/16iV3NghoE– Борис Вишневский (@visboris) September 5, 2021
Faced with this mask revealed by the candidate on social networks, the president of the Central Electoral Commission was powerless. Similar are therefore good candidates.
Because these elections mobilize few voters
One of the main challenges of these legislative elections is participation. “Voters are not interested in these elections that are less important compared to local ones, for example, explains Françoise Daucé. Especially as United Russia is facing growing unpopularity against a backdrop of corruption scandals and declining living standards, especially among the working class.“
In this context, Vladimir Putin called, on Thursday, in a speech, his fellow citizens to show “patriotism”, going to the polls. The government has also gone out of its way to mobilize loyal United Russia constituencies, in particular by organizing raffles for voters, with apartments and cars to be won. “This classic process aims to attract an elderly constituency that is not opposed to “, says Anna Colin. to the electorate “urban and younger”, which is not committed to the cause of united Russia, the power did not seek to campaign.
“Low turnout among urban youth allows power to protect itself against a protest vote.”
Anna Colin, professor at the Paris-Nanterre Universityto France
Also with the objective of facilitating access to the ballot boxes, in almost seven regions, electronic voting is being offered for the first time. “There, everything escapes us, we don’t know how the votes will be counted and whether or not this will facilitate the swelling of votes”., explains Anne Colin.
Another lever to increase participation is based on the vote of directors. In public services, the pressure to go to the polls is high. “On Friday, the elections were held during business hours, employers may, in some cases, ask for proof of vote, under penalty of sanction”, observes Françoise Daucé.