Three years have passed since that fateful day in February 2022, when Russians returned to work after a holiday, only to find their country’s army had entered Ukraine through several fronts. The initial shock, street protests, and outrage have given way to a sense of calm, as people have come to accept their new reality. Today, posters inviting citizens to join the army for lucrative salaries are a common sight in Russian streets, and discussions about advances on the front lines are frequent. Military uniforms are also a familiar sight, serving as a reminder that the country is at war.
As the months have gone by, the mobilizations of the past seem to have been forgotten, and life has continued with a sense of normalcy. However, the effects of the war are still palpable, and the economy has undergone significant changes. The dependence on Western countries for consumer goods has decreased, and local companies have stepped in to replace the large brands that left Russia after the Soviet Union ended. The new economic engine driving the country is the war industry, with the federal budget allocating 13.5 billion rubles (approximately 135,000 million euros) to the army in 2025.
According to economists, this stimulus has contributed to Russia’s recent economic growth, with a 4% increase in GDP last year. Nonetheless, the impact of international sanctions has been felt, restricting access to financing and reducing oil and gas exports. Independent estimates suggest that the income from energy sales has collapsed by almost a quarter, a trend that is expected to continue over the next three years. Companies like BP, Shell, and Eni have withdrawn their investments in Russia, and shipping companies like Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping have suspended container shipments to the country, excluding food, medical, and humanitarian supplies.
The Central Bank of Russia has intervened to stabilize the market by increasing interest rates to 20%, which has managed to stop inflation. The possibility of relief from sanctions, hinted at by the new American administration, would be a significant boost to the Russian economy, potentially eliminating restrictions on international transfers and reinstating the SWIFT system for Russian banks. This could facilitate international trade and provide a much-needed lifeline to the country.
Despite the tensions with Europe, Russia seems open to future trade agreements with the United States, as evidenced by the reception of President Trump. The Kremlin is prioritizing its participation in the BRICs group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), with whom commercial exchange has increased since 2022. The last summit of the group was held in the Russian city of Kazan in October, and Moscow is championing measures to turn the group into a major international organization, including its expansion and the possibility of issuing its own currency to rival the dollar and euro.
Expelled from the G7 in 2022, Russia does not seem interested in returning to the group, despite President Trump’s recent proposal to accept them again. Instead, the Kremlin has been cultivating new alliances with Asian, African, and Latin American countries, which have begun to bear fruit. The multipolar world advocated by Putin appears to have gained momentum in the last three years, and Russia may be poised to play a leading role in this new global landscape. As the Russians continue to wait for news about the war and its consequences, they are aware that their country will never be the same again, and that the war industry has become the new driving force behind their economy.