Russia continues to play its cards in the Ukraine war. Vladimir Putin is in no hurry. The country’s economy has not collapsed, the war industry is growing, and the number of Russian reservists seems endless. On the other hand, there is increasing war weariness among the Western allies. Moscow sees divisions within the military leadership, which recently criticized President Volodymyr Zelensky’s strategy. The West sent everything that Kiev asked of it, in the absence of a transfer F-16 fighter jets , While this is planned for early 2024, it appears to be insufficient in the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which Western analysts say has stalled, something the Ukrainian foreign minister flatly denies.
The truth is that Ukraine’s long-awaited summer counteroffensive has not yet brought significant territorial gains and Russia has not made any progress either, but it senses enemy fatigue and a lack of resources. ““Russia was caught in a war of attrition that has its own logic… it is a war on autopilot.”Konstantinos Grivas, professor of geopolitics at the Hellenic Army Academy, tells Al Jazeera. “Both sides have failed to find a technological or tactical advantage that would lead to a breakthrough because the defense is dominant,” the expert added.
In the midst of this situation The Kremlin has decided to redouble its efforts and send thousands of additional soldiers to the front to conquer new territories. defend what it already has and gain a dominant position in the face of future negotiations with the enemy and, above all, improve Russia’s image in the war before the presidential elections scheduled for next March, in which the Russian leader will present himself as a guarantee of security .
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Friday that the Russian army was advancing in all directions in Ukraine. And? “During six months of the so-called counteroffensive, the enemy lost more than 125,000 soldiers and 16,000 combat machines.” Also today, in an interview with AP, President Zelensky assured that the war with Russia is in a new phase, with a winter that will complicate the fight after a counteroffensive in the summer that did not bring the desired results due to the lack of weapons ground forces.
by himNATO was reminded of the importance of continuing to send military assistance. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Moscow’s ability to continue fighting despite massive troop losses should not be underestimated. According to various sources, around 300,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in the war. “The Russian economy is in a state of war, “Putin has a high tolerance for victims and Russian goals in Ukraine have not changed.”Stoltenberg said this week.
Moscow senses blood on the enemy. Dmytro Kubela, the Ukrainian foreign minister, said this week Ukraine had received only a third of the millions of artillery shells promised by the European Union. Meanwhile, Putin has agreed to a record increase in spending on the armed forces. “We all know we have to do more to help Ukraine: more missiles, more ammunition, more air defense systems, faster,” he said this week. Charles Michel, President of the European Council.
The will and heroism of Ukrainian troops will not be enough to move forward, warn analysts at Deep State, a Ukrainian website that tracks military developments in the war. They speak in particular of the Ukrainian advance on Krynky, a village on the occupied left bank of the Dnipro River, opposite the city of Kherson. “The enemy forces are clearly superior.”, is insured in the Deep State. “Everything is based solely on heroism. But the operation wasn’t just about heroism. If the zone of control is not expanded in the future, a heroic defense will turn into a tragedy.”
Currently, the center of the war is the Russian offensive city of Avdiivka, a city of strategic importance in the Donetsk region. Its capture could allow Russia to threaten Pokrovsk, a key communications enclave just 30 kilometers away. This was said by Mykhailo Podolyak, Ukrainian presidential adviser Russia sent troops into the Battle of Avdiivka regardless of casualties. “Russia still has unlimited human resources, which it recklessly uses to carry out so-called human wave attacks,” he wrote on social media.
The result of increased military spending is the new Russian FPV drone equipment with long-range control, which causes significant damage to the enemy. These are smaller “kamikaze” drones that attack all types of Ukrainian equipment and soldiers and explode on impact.
Ukraine wins the naval war
If Ukraine fails to advance in land and air warfare, it appears to be doing so at sea. Kiev says its forces have damaged or destroyed 27 warships and ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet since the invasion began in 2022, including the fleet’s flagship, the Moscow cruise of 11,000 tons, as well as one of the Russian Kilo-class submarines with cruise missiles.
Russia has been forced to withdraw much of its fleet from the Sevastopol base because it no longer considers it safe, especially after several Ukrainian attacks that Kiev described as successful.